Fitch revises global GDP plunge to 4.4%, expects moderate expansion in 2020

Charles Abuede

After an initial prediction in its June outlook that global gross domestic product (GDP) will plunge by 4.6 percent this year, Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast slightly to 4.4 percent in a new outlook just released.

In the latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) for September 2020, the rating agency stated that the recent return of economic activities after the record coronavirus-related recession in March and April has been swifter than anticipated, and that it expects the pace of expansion to moderate soon.

Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings chief economist, while commenting on the frontier markets and major economies, said “China has already regained its pre-virus level of GDP and retail sales in the US, France and the UK now exceed February levels, but we doubt this will become the much-lauded ‘V’-shaped recovery. Unemployment shocks lie ahead in Europe, firms are cutting CAPEX, and social distancing continues to directly constrain private-sector spending.”

US economy expected to contract by 4.6 per cent in 2020

On the major economies in the world, Fitch said it expects the US economy to contract by 4.6 per cent in 2020 compared to its earlier 5.6 per cent forecast in June, while China is estimated to grow by 2.7 per cent compared to 1.2 per cent three months ago. The global rating company said the revisions, however, have been partly offset by cuts to its 2020 GDP forecast for the eurozone to -9 per cent from the initial -8 per cent, the United Kingdom revised to -11.5 per cent from the earlier -9 per cent and the emerging markets excluding China was revised to -5.7 per cent from -4.7 per cent due to the enormous change in its forecast for India to -10.5 per cent from -5 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2021.

With the world GDP falling by 8.9 per cent year on year and many economies witnessing falls in output of a fifth or more, official data have shown the severity of the economic dislocation in the second quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, the UK, India, France, Italy and Spain stand out having witnessed stringent and lengthy lockdowns during the last quarter (Q2) which saw mobility levels fall very sharply.

Fiscal policy easing to help offset weakened private demand

Additionally, Fitch further revealed that fiscal policy easing announcements since June will help offset the weakness in private demand as a moderate pace of recovery across economies from late 2020 is imminent. Fitch chief economist hinted that “We still see the recovery path being decidedly ‘swoosh’-shaped. Off the back of a two-month recession, we think it will take 18 months from the low-point in April for the US to get back to 4Q19 GDP and 30 months in the eurozone”

It also noted that as Emerging Markets (EMs) are in countless ways faced with tougher economic challenges from the pandemic given more-limited social safety nets and healthcare capacity as well as less span for insistent macro policy easing, many EMs now face economic contractions on a scale comparable to or larger than those seen in the eurozone despite much higher underlying growth rates.

According to Fitch, the easing in global credit conditions following massive central bank liquidity injections in the first half of the year has provided some relief.

The Fitch global economic forecast observes that a return to highly stringent countrywide lockdown measures to virus containment might be a downside risk as the approach could prompt renewed declines in GDP, although likely on a more limited scale than

AfDB back as top-tier partner of AGRA, sponsors 10th green revolution forum

Ben Eguzozie, with wire copy

 The African Development Bank (AfDB) has returned as a top-tier partner of the African Green Revolution Forum (AGRF) – Africa’s largest annual agriculture conference – which brings together delegates from governments, civil society, the private sector and research communities.

The 10th edition of AGRF, hosted by Rwanda and the AGRF partners group, is organized under the theme: “Feed the cities, Grow the continent. Leveraging urban food markets to achieve sustainable food systems in Africa,” began Monday and runs till 11 September. The event, which is being held online due to Covid-19 pandemic, is headlined by African heads of state and government.

Wambui Gichuri, AfDB’s acting vice president for agriculture, human and social development, said, “as COVID-19 causes disruptions across Africa, we must prioritize policy support, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that produce, process and market 60% of food consumed on the continent.

“We need to enhance movement of inputs and food, increase production of and access to healthy and nutritious foods, establish food security task forces in countries, as well as strengthen regional organization capacity to monitor multi-country initiatives. AGRF is the platform to move these policy conversations forward,” Gichuri said.

The AfDB acting vice president leads the bank’s “digital delegation” to AGRF, which also includes Atsuko Toda, director for agricultural finance and rural development; Martin Fregene, director for agriculture and agro-industry; Esther Dassanou, coordinator of the bank’s Affirmative Finance Action for the Women of Africa initiative (AFAWA), and Edson Mpyisi, coordinator of the bank’s ‘enable youth programme.” The bank delegation will take part in nine AGRF sessions.

Gichuri is scheduled to deliver remarks during a nutrition-themed plenary: “Building back better – growing the continent. This policy symposium to be held Wednesday afternoon, will discuss the UN’s “The state of food security and nutrition in the world, the ongoing pandemic, and feeding the continent.”

Toda moderated a bank-organized AGRF side event Monday afternoon. The session: “Integrating African Food Systems through the Lens of SME Champions,” amplified the voices of small and medium enterprises in the production, processing, logistics, and cold chain solutions sub-sectors.

 

“Feeding Africa’s growing population is not just about producing more food. It’s also about getting food to people who need it most. We support entrepreneurs along food system value chains helping to make that happen,” Toda said.

American Kariya Energy targets African oil, gas assets, small-scale LNG

North American energy giant Kariya Energy has announced it is set to sign a number of definitive agreements to take over some oil and gas assets in a number of African countries. The company in a statement seen by Business A.M. described the assets as midstream and upstream.

 

Kariya has had deep and shallow water projects experience in some African countries, including Nigeria, Mozambique, Congo DRC, Congo Republic, Gabon and Senegal, making the aforementioned countries great possibilities for investments.

 

The company’s financial and technical strengths places it in a good position to transfer North American ingenuity to the oil and natural gas market in Africa that is still growing.

 

The company says that it has spent 16 months studying data from several international oil companies (IOCs), and that it will pursue acquisitions of development and exploration plays through operatorship via risk service contracts, farm-in deals or direct negotiation with governments.

 

Kariya Energy says it will continue playing its ongoing support role by offering financial, technical and operational support to oil and gas firms currently plying their trade in Congo, Gabon and Nigeria.

 

It says that its strategy is to focus more on the evaluation of new opportunities and innovation to extract resources with technology that has been shown to work.

 

Meanwhile, the firm has also stated that it will focus on pursuing small-scale liquid and natural gas projects on the continent; a niche that Kariya Energy’s leadership has mastered in terms of both building and making ventures profitable and scalable thereby bolstering the firm’s potential to succeed in the African market.

 

With Kariya’s technological assets, it can turn around small-scale African LNG, and create partnerships targetted at addressing off-grid power generation for both residential and industrial needs in rural locations as well as deal with issues around energy poverty on the African continent.

Canadian Imperial Bank appoints Nigerian legal professional to senior executive role

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), a leading North American financial institution, has appointed a Nigerian-born Kikelomo Lawal, to the position of executive vice president and chief legal officer, Victor Dodig, the bank’s chief executive officer, announced earlier this month.

A statement seen by Business A.M., said in her role, Lawal will be accountable for overseeing the global legal function as well as the corporate secretary, ombudsman and privacy office functions, and related policies and programmes. The bank CEO also revealed that she will join the bank’s executive committee and will report to  the president and CEO,Victor Dodig.
“Kike is a proven leader and she will play a key role as we continue to build a relationship-oriented bank for a modern world and live our purpose – to help make our clients’ ambitions a reality. She is an accomplished legal professional with strong business acumen who brings a strategic approach to the position. We look forward to having Kike join our leadership team and adding her expertise, experience and perspective to our bank,” Dodig said.
Meanwhile, Lawal, described as a strong advocate for inclusion, who spoke regularly on its importance across different dimensions, was most recently, the ombudsman and corporate secretary at Interac Corporation, with an experience of over 20 years of progressive leadership including legal expertise both as a trial lawyer and as a transactional lawyer.
Lawal’s appointment into office is expected to become effective from October 12, 2020

JSE to acquire majority stake in South Africa’s Link Market Services 

Charles Abuede

Leila Fourie JSE
JSE CEO, Leila Fourie

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Limited, the operator of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), Africa’s largest, multi-asset class stock exchange, has announced that it has received the green light to acquire a majority stake in Link Market Services South Africa (Proprietary) Limited from the Competition Tribunal.  The Tribunal’s approval is subject to various conditions that will be communicated in due course, the JSE said in a statement sent to Business A.M.

Pheliswa Mayekiso, the JSE media and internal communications manager, who signed the statement disclosed that the acquisition will see JSE Limited acquire 74.85 per cent shareholding in Link SA for a cash amount of 224.5 million South Africa rand, with Link SA’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) shareholder retaining the remaining 25.15 per cent. The transaction is expected to be concluded within the first week of November 2020.

“I am very pleased with the positive outcome from the Competition Tribunal. This acquisition paves the way to exciting new opportunities in the issuer services space. The Link SA acquisition is part of the JSE’s ongoing strategy to grow sustainably and diversify its revenue,” the statement quotes Leila Fourie, the JSE chief executive officer, as saying.

But Mayekiso further explained that through Link SA, the JSE intends to introduce products and services to corporate entities in South Africa with a focus on shareholder communication and engagement; while, as a leading global exchange, the JSE co-creates, unlocks value and makes real connections happen.

Link SA is described as the second largest share registry business in South Africa with a client base that includes six of the top 40 issuers, offering, primarily, transfer secretarial and registry services, including registry maintenance, such as maintaining companies’ share registers; treasury services, such as calculating and managing the payment of dividends and distributions for companies; and corporate actions, such as planning and managing rights issues, elections and dividend payments on behalf of companies.

AfDB targets reaching $25bn in climate finance pool by 2021

Ben Eguzozie, with wire copy

Akinwumi Adesina, head, African Development Bank( AfDB)

 

  • Says projects increased 400% in 5 years
  • AIF attracts $78.8bn investment into Africa
  • Bank’s general capital also increased to $208bn from $93bn

 

Akinwunmi Adesina, who was sworn-in as president of the African Development Bank (AfDB) for a second term of five years, said going forward the pan-African multilateral financial institution would take its climate finance to reach $25 billion by 2021.

Adesina in a moving acceptance speech after his swearing-in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, at the headquarters of the AfDB Group, said the bank has been accountable for the climate since COP 21 in Paris; adding that its climate financing expanded from 9 per cent in 2015 to 36 per cent by 2019 – showing an increase of 400 per cent. “We’ve now targeted to reach $25 billion in climate finance by 2021,” he said.

He also announced that the bank’s innovative and ground-breaking Africa Investment Forum in 2018 and 2019 were able to attract a combined $78.8 billion worth of investment interests into Africa.

A number of Nigerian states picked up funding agreement for a plethora of projects they target to develop in the country. Some of them include Abia State’s Enyimba City, which development is estimated to cost $500 million.

While announcing phenomenal record achievements by the AfDB Group during the last five years (2015-2020), recording an increase of $115 billion to $208 billion during the period, Adesina said: “In every country, the bank’s impacts are felt. We expanded our presence to 44 countries, including across fragile states. The bank has the lowest cost among all multilateral development banks, and has also been rated as the 2nd best managed concessional financing institution globally. Our staff risk their lives to deliver.”

He said the AfDB was delivering more for women with the implementation of the Affirmative Finance Action for Women (AFAWA), to leverage $3 billion for women and women businesses. “We have launched a Gender Equality Trust Fund, the first ever in the Bank, and are advancing on gender markers for all projects of the Bank. We must continue to strongly support women. When women win, Africa wins,” he said.

The AfDB president informed the shareholders which comprise 54 African nations and 27 non-African members that the bank’s High5s initiative which are: Light up and Power Africa; Feed Africa; Industrialize Africa; Integrate Africa; and Improve the Quality of Life of the people of Africa which were developed to accelerate the delivery of the 10-year strategy, have been “implemented with deliberateness, speed and rigour.”

“The High5s have taken hold on the continent and become the keys for accelerating Africa’s development. The UNDP has shown that achieving the High5s would lead to achievement of 90% of the SDGs and the Agenda 2063 of the African Union,” Adesina said.

He informed that over the past five years, the Bank has delivered impressive results on the High5s with: 18 million people with access to electricity; 141 million people had access to improved agricultural technologies for food security; 15 million people with access to finance from private investments; 101 million people with access to improved transport from infrastructure; 60 million people with access to water and sanitation.

“The Bank’s High5 programmes have impacted 335 million people. That’s what the African Development Bank – your Bank – is all about … ‘people impact,’” he said. The initiative would be the plank of the Bank’s next five-year programme under Adesina.

South African rand plunges as government struggles to revive economy

President Cyril Ramaphosa, SA president

South Africa’s rand depreciated 2.1 per cent to 16.8229 to the dollar to emerge the most weakened currency against the dollar. This has led to an economic volatility and fears of more economic challenges in weeks to come.

 

The rand which is headed for its biggest daily drop since June 11 witnessed its greatest decline in a month as the government continues to restructure the economy from recession following the covid-19 pandemic. According to the South African Treasury, the economy is expected to slump by an estimate of seven per cent in 2020.

 

Johannesburg based chief economist at Investec Bank Ltd, Annabel Bishop is of the assertion that the political opposition to the economic reforms by the country’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa is responsible for the domestic currency’s depreciation. He stated further that if the environment remains hostile to economic growth, it will result in further credit-rating downgrades and the rand would continue to decline.

 

South Africa, which is currently rated as the second-largest economy in Africa after Nigeria, recorded a negative investment-grade credit rating when Moody’s Investors Service degraded its assessment in March. This led to the sale of the country’s bonds resulting in net outflows culminating a record 59 billion rand equivalent to $3.5 billion on August 28. Yields on the country’s 10-year benchmark bonds also plummeted by two basis points to 9.29%.

Taiwan boosts chances of trade deal by lifting restrictions on US beef, pork imports

Saviour Adugba, with wire report


Taiwan has given a boost to its chances of securing a free trade deal with the United States after the Asian country announced on Friday that it will be easing the restrictions placed on beef and pork imports from the US.
Taiwan has been looking for a free trade agreement with the US which is its most valuable support internationally, but the US has been cold on the deal due to the restriction on its pork and beef by the Taiwanese government, Reuters news agency reported, adding that Taiwan has said that the restriction was predicated on health considerations, pointing to concerns over additives and diseases.
Tsai Ing-Wen, Taiwan’s president, speaking on the ease of the restrictions noted that Taiwan plans to approve the import of American pork containing ractopamine; a leanness enhancing additive, as well as beef from the US more than 30 months old.
“The decision is in line with the country’s overall interests and the goals of the nation’s strategic development. It’s also a decision that could boost Taiwan-U.S. ties.
“If we can take one crucial step forward on the issue of U.S. pork and beef, it will be an important start for Taiwan-U.S. economic cooperation at all fronts,” he is quoted to have said.
Morgan Ortagus, a spokeswoman for the US State Department said that Taiwan’s decision to ease the restriction placed on US beef and pork was a welcome development, stating that the move will open the door to better trade cooperation and economic ties.
“We look forward to the timely implementation of these actions, which will provide greater access for U.S. farmers to one of East Asia’s most vibrant markets, and for Taiwan consumers to high-quality U.S. agricultural products,” Ortagus noted.
President Tsai knows that the free trade agreement might not happen overnight as she notes that it may “take a while,” but she states that she has a positive outlook on the matter. She also clarifies that the decision to ease the import restriction has nothing to with the US’ upcoming presidential election but she hailed the US as an “extremely important” trade partner for Taiwan.
Taiwanese Council of Agriculture Minister Chen Chi-Chung intimated that the ease of the import restriction on pork and beef is expected to start Jan 1 of next year.

AfDB’s Adesina gets second term to pursue bank’s ‘High 5’ development agenda for Africa

Charles Abuede

Adesina, AfDB
AfDB President, Akinwumi Adesina

Akinwumi Adesina has been re-elected as the president of the Africa Development Bank (AfDB) by the bank’s Board of Governors for a second five-year term. His re-election came after he stood unopposed in the development bank’s elections.

The continent’s multilateral lender, based in Abidjan, conducted her elections on August 27 at the bank’s headquarters where Adesina had emerged ahead of Cristina Duarte, the agricultural minister of Cape Verde and Chadian finance minister, Kordje Bedoumra, who were the contenders for the said position five years earlier.

On the back of the approaching election on Thursday, Nigeria, in a bid to support its own in the race for the leadership of the international financial institution, had discreetly increased her voting rights through the doubling of her capital share in the bank from 9 per cent to 16.8 per cent.

The move made Nigeria the biggest rights holder in the continental lender ahead of Egypt who has 4.8 per cent stake in the bank, Germany with 7.5 per cent, and the United States and Cote d’Ivoire who have 5.5 and 3.1 per cents shareholding rights respectively, after redeeming the subscriptions it had pledged as part of a general capital before the January deadline.

Ahead of the election there had been media reports about a probe of Adesina following a petition by some whistleblowers, a petition that was later dismissed by an internal probe set up under the bank’s processes. An independent review then followed after the United States disagreed with the internal probe carried out by the bank; and this also cleared Adesina of any wrong-doing.

But many view the first five years of Adesina as very successful, with specific mention of progress made in the continent as a result of the activities of the AfDB under Adesina’s watch, including a power programme that has seen over 18 million people now with access to electricity; 141 million people benefiting from improved agricultural technologies for food security, as well as the 15 million people who have access to finance in a drive to enhance financial inclusion in Africa. 

In the same vein, over 101 million people now have access to improved transport and 60 million people have gained access to water and sanitation.

With his re-election, many now expect Adesina to renew with vigour his AfDB agenda encapsulated in the AfDB’s High 5s of development.

Covid-19: Africa to lose $173.1bn in GDP in 2020, $236bn next year, says AfDB

…as annual meetings kick off in Cote d’Ivoire with Adesina presiding

…says continent lost a decade of economic growth

 

As Covid-19 pandemic hits the global economy, with certain continents and regions of the world expected to receive more knocks, the African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that Africa, could lose $173.1 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and $236.7 billion in 2021 because of the pandemic.

This emerged as the 55th annual meetings of the AfDB and the 46th meetings of the board of governors of the African Development Fund (ADF) began Wednesday in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. This year’s meetings being held virtually due to restrictions occasioned by the COVID-19 health crisis are aimed at a renewed commitment to economic resilience in Africa.

 

The restrictions and strict lockdown measures imposed at the start of the virus crisis, some of which are being gradually relaxed, have resulted in mass closures of businesses and millions of job losses. The aim is to soften the impact of the anticipated recession.

 

Africa, a continent of over 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of $3 trillion, has most of its 55 nations highly dependent on primary commodities, especially oil, for their foreign revenues. Today, these commodities are witnessing their worst demand drop in history. Worst hit is crude oil where Africa’s upstream spend is down by $14 billion, while foreign direct investments (FIDs) into the continent’s LNG is down from 22 to only three, a report by Africa Oil Week (AOW) said.

 

“With the pandemic, Africa has lost over a decade of gains of economic growth. Africa’s

recovery will be long and difficult. Now we must help Africa to build back, boldly, but smartly, paying greater attention to quality growth: health, climate and the environment,” said Akinwunmi Adesina, AfDB Group president, while addressing the audience.

 

He said back in April, the Bank reacted swiftly to the pandemic, with a series of bold measures to support its regional member states to help cushion them against the impacts of the outbreak. “One example was the launch of the COVID-19 Response Facility of up to $10 billion. The response, like the crisis, is now on a continental scale. From the north to the south of the continent, the Bank has provided massive support to strengthen the resilience of regional member states. The Bank has provided support worth $22 million to regional bodies such as ECOWAS in West Africa, to strengthen the health systems of low-income countries, and to CEMAC in central Africa. It also assisted the G5 countries in the Sahel to the tune of $20 million,” Adesina said.

 

Nialé Kaba, Ivorian minister for planning and development in Côte d’Ivoire and president of the AfDB’s Board of Governors, stressed that the pandemic was, in spite of all, an opportunity to “take up the challenge of the digitization of our economies.” She encouraged the Bank’s management “to provide substantial support to African countries individually and collectively in order to strengthen national and regional digital infrastructure for greater connectivity.”

 

The highlights of the 2020 sessions are the election of the Bank Group’s president and the statutory meetings of its Governors, which are being held behind closed doors. Expectedly, Adesina would be re-elected later today (Thursday 27 August) unopposed for a second term of five years, after serving an earlier first term. Adesina, the first Nigerian to occupy the position, was elected by the Bank’s Board of Governors for a five-year term on 28 May 2015 at the 50th annual meetings, which took place in Abidjan.

 

In his opening speech at the AfDB, ADF meetings, the President of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, highlighted the unusual context of this year’s annual meetings, taking place against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also underscored the Bank’s critical support for his country and other regional members.

 

“This is an opportunity for me to acknowledge the African Development Bank, its President and Board of Directors, for the unwavering support expressed in these difficult times to African states. Indeed, the Bank’s COVID-19 Rapid Response Facility has made it possible to finance

and support African countries in the fast implementation of plans to fight the pandemic,” Ouattara said.

 

President Ouattara applauded the “remarkable capacity to adapt that the Bank has shown by continuing its operations and functioning in virtual mode, since March 2020,” and the work accomplished by Bank President, Akinwunmi Adesina “who has successfully led the transformation of the African Development Bank and has given it great credibility and visibility, of which we are proud.” He wished Adesina good luck in his re-election bid.

 

Adesina also lauded the excellent relationship between the financial institution and Côte d’Ivoire, which is home to the Bank’s headquarters. He also paid tribute to the country’s steady economic progress.

 

During the meetings, Governors from the Bank’s 54 regional member states in Africa and 27 non-regional member states, will also evaluate the response to the pandemic, which will help to build a truly resilient post-COVID-19 Africa.

 

The African Development Bank’s annual meetings are attended by ministers of finance, central bank governors, political decision-makers, civil society organizations, heads of international organizations and key representatives of industry and the private sector. Meanwhile, Adesina has welcomed Ireland as the Bank Group’s 81st membe