OPEC still has an important role to play in Global Oil Market 

 

By Sebastian Wagner
  • OPEC has been at the center of one of the biggest stories of 2020 aside from COVID-19
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – Scan Western news about OPEC from the last few years, and a common observation tends to appear: OPEC had a huge influence on the global oil market back in the day. Now, in the shale oil era, not so much.

I would argue that OPEC can safely state that reports of its death—or dwindling relevance—are greatly exaggerated. In fact, OPEC has been at the center of one of the biggest stories of 2020 aside from COVID-19: a historic deal that resolved the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

From 2016 to late March, the two oil powerhouses had been part of a loose alliance of OPEC members and non-member producers known as OPEC+. Its purpose was to stabilize the global oil market through voluntary production cuts. The alliance was a success until early this year, when COVID-19 effectively shut down China’s economy and dramatically reduced its crude oil imports. To restore market balance, OPEC member Saudi Arabia asked OPEC+ member Russia to increase its production cuts. When Russia refused, Saudi Arabia stopped complying with its own production cuts and, instead, started flooding the market with oil. Russia followed suit, and plans to renew the OPEC+ agreement on April 1 were abandoned. Crude oil prices went into freefall, and U.S. shale oil producers started struggling to survive. It didn’t help when COVID-19 began forcing lockdowns around the globe, resulting in plummeting demand for crude and even lower oil prices.

The world was watching closely when Saudi and Russian leaders attended an emergency OPEC/OPEC+ meeting on April 9. After three days of negotiations, OPEC and OPEC+ members agreed to massive production cuts starting with nearly 10 million barrels per day May 1. The cuts, which will gradually decrease, will continue through April 2022. While low demand remains a concern, by stabilizing the oil market, OPEC+ will still provide economic relief and save jobs around the world. Shortly after the product-cut agreement was finalized, exhausted Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman shared his exhilaration with Bloomberg News. “We have demonstrated that OPEC+ is up, running, and alive.”

Indeed. Both OPEC and OPEC+ are very much alive and as relevant as ever.

A New Era?

Despite the condescending descriptions of OPEC I’ve read in American media coverage, I am seeing signs that U.S. leaders are starting to look at OPEC with newfound respect. Even one of the organization’s most outspoken American critics, President Donald Trump, had generous words for OPEC the evening before its April 9 meeting. “Obviously for many years I used to think OPEC was very unfair,” Trump said during a press briefing. “I hated OPEC. You want to know the truth? I hated it. Because it was a fix. But somewhere along the line that broke down and went the opposite way.”

Then there’s Ryan Sitton of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Texas. He responded to the Saudi-Russia oil price war by reaching out to OPEC and proposing statewide oil production cuts. After a one-hour photo call with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, Sitton was invited to attend OPEC’s June meeting in Vienna.

While I applaud Sitton’s initiative, I couldn’t help noticing what a departure it was from America’s usual “OPEC playbook.” U.S. energy policy has been driven by a strong desire to “free” the country’s oil and gas industry from OPEC’s influence. As recently as 2018, the U.S. House of Representatives attempted to pass theNo Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC) (https://bit.ly/3bpS3h5). Had this harmful bill been approved, the U.S. Attorney General would have been empowered to bring antitrust lawsuits against OPEC and its member countries. The legislation likely would have jeopardized foreign investments in the U.S. oil and gas industry and cost America valuable commercial partnerships.

How dramatically things have changed. Two years after NOPEC was proposed, we had a representative from the powerful Texas Railroad commission offering to work with OPEC to help balance the market.

While it’s unclear whether Texas will cut production, Sitton’s decision to open communication with OPEC is a positive, and I hope other U.S. industry leaders will consider the same. Instead of viewing OPEC as the enemy, dismissing it, or avoiding it, why not learn to understand this important organization and lay the foundation for a productive relationship?

Gaining Perspective

I suggest starting with Amazon’s bestselling book, Billions at Play: The Future of African Energy and Doing Deals, which includes a chapter titled “A Place at the Table: Africa and OPEC.” Yes, the chapter covers the value OPEC membership offers African nations, but its insights are relevant to everyone with ties to the oil and gas industry.

The background on OPEC’s 2016 Declaration of Cooperation is particularly timely. It was that agreement among OPEC producers and 11 non-members that resulted in OPEC+. For the first time in OPEC’s history, member countries agreed to work with non-member countries to stabilize the global oil market after increased U.S. shale oil production triggered low prices. Together, participating countries committed to voluntary production adjustments of 1.8 million barrels per day. Until the extraordinary chain of events set off by COVID-19, the OPEC+ alliance remained firmly in place.

The book also delves into the reasons OPEC membership has so much to offer African oil-producers: strength in numbers and a commitment to unity. “The organization says that every new member adds to the group’s stability and strengthens members’ commitment to one another,” the book explains. “Different perspectives create a rich culture where colleagues can learn from one another, anticipate and respond to the complexity of today’s oil markets, and ultimately, influence prices.”

It’s not always a seamless process, but OPEC continues to achieve those objectives. And as we go forward, this kind of unified approach will remain critical. Most likely, the global oil and gas industry will be forced to deal with the economic impacts of COVID-19 and low oil demand for an unknown period of time. Instead of working at cross purposes, oil-producing countries will need to continue cooperating to find solutions, embrace opportunities, and keep the industry alive.


Sebastian Wagner is the Chairman of the German African Business Forum and the CEO of DMWA Resources, a pan-African energy marketing & investment firm. Worked for Trafigura & affiliated companies in oil trading, responsible for managing trading operations and pursuing pre-financing opportunities in around Africa

Rivers youths protest planned relocation of Shell to Lagos

Members of Rivers Youths State Federation protesting against alleged relocation of SNEPCO to Lagos, on Friday.

Youths under the aegis of the Rivers Youth State Federation (RSYF) on Friday staged a protest at the Logistics Base of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCO) over an alleged plan by the company to relocate its business to Lagos.

Saviour Patrick, president of Rivers Youth State Federation (RSYF), who led the peaceful protest, said the fresh move by SNEPCO to move out of Rivers State will lead to significant job loss in the state and render many members of his group idle.

It was observed that the protesting youths observed strict social distancing and wore nose masks during the protest.

A letter delivered to the company by the youths during the protest, and signed by Patrick and RSYF secretary general, Bishop Abhili Tam, reads: “Our attention has been drawn to your recent plans of relocating to Lagos State of Nigeria from Onne Port in spite COVID-19 lockdown without informing your host community in a clear term as to your reason.

“It is worthy of note that in September 2018, your company launched the same bid which we vehemently protested in our great numbers and which took the intervention of the Director of DSS Rivers State Command and HRM Ateke Michael Tom to avert. This development therefore is worrisome.

“We wish to refresh your memory that after the intervention by the two aforementioned authorities, certain resolutions were made at the Conference Hall of the DSS Rivers State Command in the presence of your company representatives, DSS Director, NPA representatives, Oil and Gas Free Zones Authority (OGFZA) representatives and other, we suspended our protest.

“We now wonder why you are intentionally violating all the resolutions made on during that meeting and shortly after the protest was halted.

“We therefore, in strong terms, condemn the inhuman and inconsiderate move by SNEPCO to leave Onne Port, Rivers State at this critical time when we are all working to combat a common enemy of human existence.

“We wish to appeal that you reverse your decision of leaving the shores of Rivers State as such attempt will be protested by Rivers youths and you shall be held responsible if there be any breakdown of law and order, which may be the resultant effect of your planned relocation to Lagos State.

“However, if you think that your planned relocation is logical, subject it therefore to dialectical examination. In other words, there should be a roundtable discussion to x-ray your reasons for relocating to Lagos State without due consultation with your host communities.

“Any attempt to violate the content of this letter shall also have a commensurate reciprocity from the Rivers State Youth Federation cum COVID-19 Presidential order on social distancing.”

 

The protesting youths, who claimed that as much as 5,000 direct and indirect jobs could be lost in Rivers State to the planned relocation, carried various placards at the SNEPCO logistics base located within the Onne Port at the Onne Oil and Gas Free Zone.

Some of the placards read: “SNEPCO do you hate us this much?”, Rivers State is more peaceful than Lagos. Why leave?”, “SNEPCO why?” “SNEPCO please don’t make life tougher for Rivers youths.”

The protesters also appealed to President Muhammadu Buhari and Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike to prevail on SNEPCO to stop the planned relocation.

India’s refiner shuns Nigeria’s crude oil in Q1

India’s refiner shuns Nigeria’s crude oil in Q1

India’s Reliance Industries, owner of the world’s biggest refining complex, saw its imports of Nigerian crude oil slump to zero in the first quarter of the year, compared to 9,800 barrels per day in Q1 2019.

India has remained the single largest buyer of Nigerian crude oil in the past few years after the United States slashed its imports from the country on the back of its shale oil production boom.

 Reliance Industries imported 8.3 per cent less oil in March than in the same month of 2019, according to data from shipping and industry sources.

It said the March imports, at 1.24 million bpd, were 6.1 per cent per cent above the previous month’s.

Reliance shipped in about 43 per cent of its imports from Latin America, slightly lower than about 43.5 per cent a year before, the data showed.

The share of Middle Eastern oil in its overall purchases rose to 43.19 per cent from about 37 per cent a year ago. Imports from the US declined to about 10 per cent from 13 per cent a year ago, the data showed.

Oil crash may warrant production halt, says NNPC

Oil crash may warrant production halt, says NNPC

Nigeria has not stopped producing crude oil but a persistent crash in oil prices may lead to a halt in production, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has declared.

On Tuesday, global oil price benchmark, amid the demand collapse caused by reduced economic activities, Brent, against which Nigeria’s crude oil is priced, fell by $6.34 to $19.23 per barrel.

Nigeria recently slashed the oil price benchmark for its budget to $30 per barrel from $57 per barrel, but oil prices kept crashing since the outbreak of coronavirus as demand plunged.

On whether Nigeria had stopped oil production due to the persistent price crash, the country’s national oil firm said it had not.

It was, however, quick to explain that this might happen should global crude oil prices maintain persistent downward plunge.

Kennie Obateru, the group general manager, group public affairs department, NNPC, said on Wednesday that oil production had not stopped.

He said, “If the situation persists, it is something that is bound to happen definitely.

“We can’t keep producing if there is no market to sell to. And it is not something that is peculiar to Nigeria. It is a global thing.”

He added, “However, it has not happened. For as much as I know and up till this morning, nothing of such has happened.”

Obateru called for optimism among Nigerians, stressing that before any halt in oil production, stakeholders would have to meet to decide on the best way forward.

He said, “We should be positive and hope that things improve. But again, if the situation persists, definitely I think it will come to that.

“However, if it is being considered, then they will have to work out the modalities and details. But I can tell you that it (production halt) has not happened.”

He added, “You know that some of the crude oil wells produce the gas that we use for power generation. So, it is not something that can be done without proper planning.

“If it will happen, it has to be planned and all the factors will be considered before a decision is taken.”

On updates about Nigeria’s unsold crude oil cargoes, the GGM noted that what should be done now was to look at how to get the best from the prevalent market condition.

Obateru said, “I don’t have any update on that at the moment. But I think some of these things are the acts of God on the world.

“All we should do is to look at the ways to get the best out of the situation we found ourselves right now.”

Earlier this month, the Group Managing Director, NNPC, Mele Kyari, said Nigerian crude oil grades were not rejected, although stranded in the market.

Providing updates as regards the 50 cargoes of Nigerian crude that were stranded in March this year, the NNPC helmsman stated that the number had reduced.

Power generation falls to 3,757MW, six plants idle

The nation’s hydropower plants have seen their output levels tumble in the past few days, causing total power generation to drop below 4,000 megawatts.

Electricity generation from Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro hydropower stations fell to 534MW as of 6am on Monday from 980MW on April 16, data from the Nigerian Electricity System Operator showed.

Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro generated 345MW, 294MW and 341MW as of 6am last Thursday, accounting for 22.85 per cent of total national generation.

But the three plants saw their output levels fall by 277MW, 157MW and 100MW respectively as of 6am on Monday, contributing 14.21 per cent to national generation.

Kainji’s 1G7 unit was said to be out on stator winding failure; 1G8 unit out due to oil leakage on governor runner head.

Similarly, 1G9 unit was out due to burnt 7.5MVA 33/0.415kV & 183.6MVA 16/330kV station service transformer and generator transformer, and 1G10 was shut down due to thrust bearing temperature problem.

Two units at Jebba, 2G2 and 2G4, were said to be out due to low load demand by the distribution companies; 2G5 tripped on unit vibration, and 2G6 was out due to burnt generator winding and automatic voltage regulator.

Generation from Shiroro’s 411G1 and 411G3 units reduced due to low-load demand by the Discos; 411G2 was out due to low-load demand by the Discos, and 411G4 was out on fault.

The nation generates most of its electricity from gas-fired power plants, while output from hydropower plants makes up about 30 per cent of the total generation.

FG pays N200bn to offset Gencos’ gas bill

FG pays N200bn to offset Gencos’ gas bill

The federal government has in the past two to three days paid over N200bn for power supply in Nigeria,Mele Kyari,  the group managing director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, declared on Wednesday.

Also, the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, the umbrella body for Discos, has said the proposed two-month free electricity for customers announced by power distribution companies recently will cost a total of about N120bn.

Kyari spoke on the N200bn payment at the Abuja headquarters of the federal ministry of power after a meeting with the minister of power, Sale Mamman; managing director, Transmission Company of Nigeria, Usman Mohammed; and managing director, Niger Delta Power Holding Company, Chiedu Ugbo; among others.

The NNPC boss stated that the payment would adequately help in settling the indebtedness of power generation firms to gas companies.

When asked what government was doing to resolve the non-payment for gas by power generation companies, Kyari said, “Actually the federal government has made payments of over N200bn for power in the last two to three days.

“This will go a long way in making sure that those payment issues are resolved. And we are engaging as a government and as a team to make sure that those payment issues are fully settled.”

He noted that gas supply for power generation had been increased by NNPC, adding that issues around power supply process were being resolved.

Oil hovers around $31 despite OPEC+ cut deal

 Oil price plunges to $22, lowest in 18 years

The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, wobbled on Monday, despite the historic oil production cut deal sealed by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday.

The OPEC, Russia and other countries agreed on Sunday to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, representing about 10 per cent of global supply.

The deal was expected to prop up prices but Brent crude rose, then fell and rose again on Monday. It was up by $0.47 to $31.95 per barrel as of 6.40 pm Nigerian time.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, on Monday set its May official selling prices for crude, selling oil to Asia more cheaply and keeping prices flat for Europe while raising them for the United States.

The US President, Donald Trump, made a case on Monday for doubling the oil supply cuts just approved by OPEC+ to 20 million bpd, saying the move would restore the energy sector faster.

He said on Twitter, “Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 million barrels a day, not the 10 million that is generally being reported.

“If anything near this happens, and the world gets back to business from the Covid-19 disaster, the energy industry will be strong again, far faster than currently anticipated.”

His tweet did not appear to move oil markets, which were waiting for greater clarity on the deal reached on Sunday after Saudi Arabia, under pressure from the US, ended a four-day stalemate with Mexico that threatened to escalate a price war in the middle of the coronavirus crisis, according to S&P Global Platts.

Under the deal announced on Sunday, the 23-country OPEC+ alliance rein in 9.7 million bpd of crude oil production for May and June – down from 10 million bpd originally envisaged, as Mexico was allowed a more generous quota.

Outside of OPEC+, Canada has signalled a willingness to cut and Norway said it would decide about its cut “in the near future”.

Crude cuts: Nigeria to earn $10.61bn in eight months

 Nigeria ready for OPEC talks, says Sylva

Nigeria may earn about $10.61bn from crude oil sales between May and December this year following latest decision by members and non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production.

Also, the country will earn about $22.74bn from crude oil between January 2021 and April 2022 going by the volume of crude oil curtailment to be implemented by Nigeria during the 16-month period, as agreed by OPEC+.

These earnings are based on the $30/barrel average price of Brent, the crude against which Nigeria’s oil is priced.

Crude oil price in Nigeria’s 2020 budget was recently rebased from $57 to $30 following the crash in global oil prices occasioned by the impact of COVID-19.

In the OPEC+ agreement, Nigeria will join the group to cut supply by 9.7 million barrels per day between May and June 2020, eight million barrels per day between July and December 2020 and six million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

Timipre Sylva, minister of state for petroleum resources, explained that based on reference production of Nigeria for October 2018 of 1.829 million barrels per day of dry crude oil, Nigeria would now be producing 1.412 million barrels per day, 1.495 million barrels per day and 1.579 million barrels per day respectively for the corresponding periods in the agreement.

At a production of 1.412 million barrels per day for 30 days in May 2020, going by Sylva’s explanation, Nigeria will be producing about 42.36 million barrels for the month.

It will also produce the same volume in June, bringing the total volume for both months to 84.72 million barrels.

With an average cost of $30 per barrel, Nigeria will therefore earn $2.54bn from crude in May and June 2020.

The country is to produce 1.495 million barrel per day from July to December 2020, which is a little above 180 days for the six-month period, hence total crude production during the period will be 269.1 million barrels, valued at $8.1bn.

It therefore implies that from May to December 2020, the country will earn $10.61bn.

Sylva, in his breakdown on Nigeria’s production cut in relation to the agreement by OPEC+, stated that from January 2021 to April 2022, Nigeria would be producing 1.579 million barrels daily.

This means that the country will produce 757.92 million barrels during the 16-month period and if the $30 average benchmark price for Brent persists, the country will earn $22.74bn.

Oil prices, however, had been fluctuating and operators believe that the commodity will increase beyond the $30 per barrel price once OPEC+ and other G20 countries start implementation.

Financial boost beckons on African oil producers after OPEC+ slashes production by 23.7mbpd

African oil producing nations will experience a financial boost following global oil production slash that sees total world production down by 23.7 million barrels per day.

In a watershed moment for the oil and gas industry, OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ group finalized a deal on Easter Sunday that, in conjunction with efforts from the G20 and International Energy Agency, could see up to 23.7 million barrels of oil per day removed from a severely oversupplied oil market. The deal is set to boost the oil price and provide some much-needed stability for an industry in crisis.
The historic production cuts provide a much-needed financial boost to Africa’s oil and gas producers, including Nigeria, Angola, South Sudan, Sudan, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville and Equatorial Guinea, as the sudden drop in oil and gas prices coincided with the COVID-19 health crisis and the economic repercussions of closing businesses and restricting movement to deal with the pandemic.

Nigerian minister of state for Petroleum, Timipre Sylva says he expects the oil price to rebound by $15 per barrel within a short term after the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the OPEC+ group cut global oil production by 20 million barrels per day on Sunday.

In a statement, Sylva, said he expects the oil price to rebound by $15 per barrel in a short-term outlook.
“This also promises an appropriate balancing of Nigeria’s 2020 budget that has been rebased at $30 per barrel,” he said.

According to the minister, Nigeria joined its other OPEC+ counterparts to bring into effect the agreement to cut 9.7 million barrels of supply following the alignment of Mexico. The intervention of the United States of America resulted in Mexico agreeing to a cut of 100 KBOPD and to be complemented by an additional 300 KBOPD by US producers.

“This will enable the rebalancing of the oil markets and the expected rebound of prices by $15 per barrel in the short term.  This also promises an appropriate balancing of Nigeria’s 2020 budget that has been rebased at $30 per barrel,” the minister noted.
As agreed, Nigeria will join OPEC+ to cut supply by 9.7 million Barrels per day between May and June 2020, 8 million barrels per day between July and December 2020 and 6 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022, respectively.
“Based on reference production of Nigeria of October 2018 of 1.829 million barrels per day of dry crude oil, Nigeria will now be producing 1.412 million barrels per day, 1.495 million Barrels per day and 1.579 million barrels per day respectively for the corresponding periods in the agreement.  This is in addition to condensate production of between 360-460 KBOPD of which are exempt from OPEC curtailment,” Sylva was quoted.

Initially announced Thursday, the agreement was delayed as Mexico refused their share of production cuts. The original OPEC+ deal would have seen a cut of 10 million barrels of crude per day from an October 2018 baseline, for an initial two-month period. With OPEC+ letting Mexico off the hook, the official OPEC+ cut now stands at 9.7 million barrels, as Mexico agrees to cut 100,000 barrels per day instead of 400,000 barrels per day.

In reality, however, the OPEC+ deal will cut more than the quoted 9.7 million barrels, since current production levels are much higher than the October 2018 baselines used to calculate the production cuts. The deal sees Russia and Saudi Arabia absorbing the brunt of the cuts, each agreeing to cut their production down to 8.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia’s production stood at 12.3 million barrels per day, and Russia was producing 11.29 million barrels of oil per day in March. Both countries, however, used 11 million barrels per day as their baseline in the deal.

“These production adjustments are historic. They are largest in volume and the longest in duration, as they are planned to last for two years. We are witnessing today the triumph of international cooperation and multilateralism which are the core of OPEC values,” said Secretary General of OPEC H.E. Mohammed Barkindo. Barkindo also noted that the OPEC+ deal paves the way for further collaboration with the G20.

In a meeting on Friday, the G20 nations also agreed to take action to stabilize the market. The United States, for example, is set to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to store vast quantities of oil. Additionally, the US will see production cuts of at least 2 million barrels as the market responds to a lack of demand. The US has also reportedly offered to take on an additional cut of 300,000 barrels per day on Mexico’s behalf, although the details of how such a deal would play out have not been released.

The OPEC+ group is expected to request the G20 to cut over 3 million barrels per day of production. The G20 energy ministers agreed Friday to create a task force to monitor the situation and formulate strategies. The Texas Railroad Commission, the agency that regulates the state’s oil and gas industry, is also scheduled to meet on Tuesday to discuss regulating formal cuts, though the US has largely maintained that the free market will determine oil production cuts.

US President Donald Trump tweeted his support for the OPEC+ deal on Sunday.

“This will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States. I would like to thank and congratulate President Putin of Russia and King Salman of Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Finally, in a reported, but not confirmed, side deal, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates could agree to reduce production by an additional 2 million barrels of oil per day.

NJ Ayuk, Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, lauded the efforts of the OPEC+ deal, as a stable oil market will provide economic relief and save jobs throughout the continent.

“OPEC has hit a home run,” Ayuk said. “OPEC has breathed life and given hope to African nations, oil workers, investors and the African business community. We need to focus on exploration soon again. Now we have the ball; we need to run with it and start the process of bouncing back. We need to defend the African oil industry like a junkyard dog in the face of a hurricane.”

South Sudan, a member of the OPEC+ alliance, also welcomed the deal, said the country’s Minister of Petroleum Hon. Puot Kang Chol.

“South Sudan is East Africa’s only producing country. Our production was over 350,000 barrels per day before the civil war. At the present moment, we are producing about 185,000 barrels per day with a target on attracting more investment into the oilfields to get our nation to 300,000 barrels per day. The current price war and coronavirus has affected our economy,” he said.

“We welcome all efforts to stabilize the oil market and South Sudan will continue to play its role. Our government will continue doing its utmost best in making the oil production and fighting the Coronavirus a priority and we will continue collaborating with all our partners,” he added.

Each nation, aside from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are both cutting substantially more, is expected to cut 23 percent of production from May to June. Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempted from the production cuts, and Mexico is only cutting 100,000 barrels per day.

After this initial two-month period, overall production cuts will lower to 8 million barrels per day from July to December and then lower to 6 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022. The OPEC+ group will meet in July to discuss further action, if needed.

With about 40 percent of the world’s population ordered to stay home to stem the spread of COVID-19, demand for oil and gas has decreased by about 30 percent, from over 100 million barrels per day to under 85 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Agency.

The International Energy Agency, which called for the G20 meeting of energy ministers on Friday, argued the market conditions were too much for OPEC+ alone to handle.

“The extreme volatility we are seeing in oil markets is detrimental to the global economy at a time when we can least afford it,” said Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA.

“Today’s oil crisis is a systematic shock that threatens global economic and financial stability. It requires a global answer. That is why the G20 can be an indispensable forum for decisive leadership when it is urgently required,” he added.

Brent crude was averaging $55.70 per barrel in February, but, with an oil price war and the impacts of COVID-19, both Brent and WTI have reached their lowest level in years, with Brent hitting $22.76 per barrel in March, its lowest price since November 2002.

As demand for oil and the price of oil has declined, storage capacity is also reaching its limits. In just a few weeks, analysts predict oil production may be shut in due to a lack of global storage capacity.

Nigeria’s $2.8bn OPEC deal largesse meets roadblock in Mexico

By Moses Obajemu

Nigeria ready for OPEC talks, says Sylva

Nigeria’s hope of raking in a $2.8 billion largesse from its sale of crude oil following last week’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) meeting may have just hit a roadblock in Mexico.

By production arrangement reached during the meeting, Nigeria was in line to earn the hefty sum from its sale of crude oil in the coming months if the weakened prices of the commodity gain an additional $15 per barrel after member-countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on fresh production cut to stabilise the oil market.

OPEC and its allies, led by the Russian Federation, agreed in a meeting on Thursday to cut output by 10 million barrels a day between May and June 2020, 8mbd between July and December 2020 and 6mbd from January 2021 to April 2022, respectively.

In line with the agreement, Timipre Sylva, minister of state for petroleum resources, who spoke on the expected $2.8 billion gain, said in a statement that the country agreed to limit its daily oil production to 1.412mbd, 1.495mbd and 1.579mbd within the period in compliance with the measures to rebalance and stabilise the oil market.

The refusal by Mexico’s Energy Secretary Rocio Nahle Garcia to accept the proposed cuts reflects her country’s determination to keep as close as possible to the production and spending plans it’s been pursuing despite the crash. In a Twitter post shortly after leaving the meeting, she said the nation is ready to reduce output by 100,000 barrels a day, far less than the 400,000 barrels a day proposed by the group, and from a higher baseline.

Sylva stated that the decision by OPEC and its partners was historic, but added that OPEC’s curtailment measures would not include Nigeria’s condensate production which is between 360,000 and 460,000 barrels a day.

He said: “It is expected that this historic intervention, when concluded, will see crude oil prices rebound by at least $15 per barrel in the short term, thereby enhancing the prospect of exceeding Nigeria’s adjusted budget estimate that is currently rebased at $30 per barrel and crude oil production of 1.7 million barrels per day. The price rebound may translate to additional revenues of not less than $2.8 billion dollars for the federation.”

The minister equally claimed that despite the production curtailments, it was pleasing for him that, “all planned industry development projects will progress, as they will be delivered after the termination of the 9th OPEC/Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting Agreement on adjustments in April 2020.”

Nigeria’s 2020 budget, which is expected to bear the brunt of the oil price slash, was passed in December 2019 with assumed oil production mark of 2.18mbd and $57 per barrel. Sylva, however, disclosed that these assumptions have been reviewed downwards with the expectation that the new OPEC measures will be beneficial to the country.

If president Trump fails to convince Mexico to sign the agreement reached at the meeting of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, this will further cause oil prices to fall and make Nigeria’s plan of earning extra revenue for its funding needs difficult.