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The deafening silence of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) since JP Morgan’s very shocking revelation a few weeks ago that Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves stood at about $3 billion as at end-December 2022 is really worrisome. According to the American financial services firm, a combination of foreign exchange forwards, securities lending, currency swaps, and outstanding contracts has weakened Nigeria’s net external reserves to an all-time low of $3.7 billion as of the end of last year. Although data from the CBN had shown that Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $33.88 billion as of August 10, 2023, down from $37.08 billion at the end of last year, JP Morgan says the country’s “net forex reserves are significantly lower than previously estimated.”

Disturbingly, too, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) — an arm of The Economist of London — also reported that “more than 40 percent of foreign reserves held by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), about US$34bn in early August, are encumbered assets, according to the CBN’s audited financial statement for 2022.” The report was published in early August 2023 and is the CBN’s first since 2015. “Using the equivalent amount of securities in its foreign-exchange reserves as collateral, as of end-2022 the CBN had borrowed US$7.5bn from overseas banks and owed more than US$7bn as a counterparty in foreign-exchange forwards. In total, US$14.7bn of the CBN’s foreign reserves are claimed in some form,” the EIU said.

The EIU report said “Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves, officially reported as equivalent to 7.8 months of imports, are an important cushion against external payment risks. Based on imports for the first quarter of 2023, the “actual” stock of foreign reserves is equivalent to only 4.5 months of imports.” All these tally with JP Morgan’s position, where it showed that huge portions of Nigeria’s foreign Exchange (FX) reserves were dangerously encumbered. Specifically, in arriving at its figures, JP Morgan broke down Nigeria’s purported FX reserves stock thus: “FX forwards ($6.84 billion), securities lending ($5.5 billion) and currency swaps ($21.3 billion); and estimated currency swaps by backing out FX forwards and outstanding OTC Futures balances from an overall aggregate published in the financial accounts.”

On its part, Moody’s Investors Service, a global financial rating agency, said in its note published on August 18, 2023 that: “The CBN reports suggest that some of its loans were used to bolster Nigeria’s (Caa1 stable) foreign exchange reserves. Should this be the case, and given the liabilities’ short tenure, our assessment of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserve adequacy would weaken.” The CBN’s audited report showed that it owes JP Morgan $7 billion and Goldman Sachs $500 million, while $6.3 billion is owed as foreign currency forwards. Moody’s noted that assuming that the CBN borrowed the whole $14.2 billion to bolster foreign reserves, “we would roughly halve the 2022 year-end gross reserves of US$30.3 billion to US$16.1 billion”.

“Similarly, our External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI), which measures short-term external debt plus maturing long-term external debt and non-resident long-term deposits relative to official foreign reserves, would worsen to up to 200 percent from its 2023 forecast level of 100 percent,” Moody’s said.

These damning reports are neither coincidences nor fictions, when juxtaposed against the recent emergency $3 billion ‘loan’ secured on behalf of the CBN by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). This development is made curious by the fact that the ‘privatized’ NNPCL has suddenly forayed into financial (re)engineering, to be the entity ‘borrowing’ from the African Export-Import Bank (Afrximbank) to strengthen the CBN’s capacity to manage Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. This queer arrangement, in reality, necessarily shows that the apex bank (already highly geared) had run short of forex; and remained incapable of sourcing any by itself. But the JP Morgan report noted that Nigeria’s low net FX reserves mean continued FX market pressures.

“Nigeria’s foreign exchange rate market remains fragmented. Since the adjustment of USD/NGN at the Investors and Exporters window a few weeks ago, interbank FX liquidity has not improved as much as anticipated, partly due to the re-introduction of de-facto controls limiting local trades and loose monetary policy conditions,” JP Morgan said. The lack of clarity on Nigeria’s external reserves worsened after the apex bank’s audited reports revealed it has a standing $14 billion loan obligation to entities including to American investment bankers, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

Apparently overwhelmed by the unfolding scenarios, the CBN had in recent times practically backpedalled and recanted some of its pronouncements and policies. It has started ‘meddling’ in the forex market, manipulating the system to arrive at the daily exchange rate of the Naira against the dollar. This is as against the perfect market condition where market forces (demand and supply) were supposed to determine the exchange rates. ‘Secretly’ as it were, the apex bank has jettisoned the full floatation of the national currency. It is recalling a large number of Bureaux de Change (BDCs) which the apex bank barred from access to FX about two years ago. In doing this, the CBN is also trying to control the parallel market operators (BDCs) by compelling them to be making daily, weekly, monthly and annual reports to the relevant unit(s) of the Bank.    

The CBN is also introducing a Price Verification System (PVS), under which it demands that: “All applications for Form M shall be accompanied by a valid price verification report generated from the price verification portal. “For the avoidance of doubt, by this circular, the price verification report has become a mandatory trade document precedent to the completion of a Form M,” the apex bank said. Form M is a declaration of intention to import physical goods into the country; and it is mandatory irrespective of the value and whether payment is involved or not.

However, even with all these ‘panic measures’ that clearly negate full Naira floatation, as earlier announced, the apex bank is yet to effectively commence addressing the acute dollar scarcity from the roots. Licensing of more petrol importers by the federal government, for instance, tantamounts to more pressure on the forex market, as these fuel importers source the dollar for their business. Crude oil production/export, unfortunately, is declining rather than rising, as shown by OPEC data for June and July, 2023. At present, Nigeria is producing roughly one million barrels per day as against its OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels per day. All these are constraints to FX inflow.

JP Morgan says, to change the narrative, Nigeria would need foreign direct and other portfolio investments to attract FX inflows. “Thus, in our view, continuing on the reform path would be imperative to allay concerns on the external side,” JP Morgan said. With import cover being closer to 4.5 months (as against CBN’s bloated figures), the risk of convertibility restrictions being imposed to control the exchange rate is consequently higher. A more managed exchange-rate regime would in any case be more unstable, and prone to regular devaluations.

This is what is already playing out; and this is why the current secrecy that shrouds CBN’s ‘reforms’ must give way to full transparency in line with a fully liberalised market. The CBN’s reforms need the buy-in of credible local and foreign investors as well as all economic players. The extant lack of transparency warrants and underlines the question: how much is Nigeria’s external reserve?

Africa is the second largest continent in the world after Asia. It is bounded by the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. It is divided in half almost equally by the Equator. The continent includes the islands of Cape Verde, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Comoros. It is bounded on the west by the Atlantic Ocean, on the north by the Mediterranean Sea, on the east by the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and on the south by the mingling waters of the Atlantic and Indian oceans. As at 2022, the population of Africa was about 1.228 billion.

Africa contains an enormous wealth of mineral resources, including some of the world’s largest reserves of fossil fuels, metallic ores, and gems and precious metals like gold and diamond. This richness is matched by a great diversity of natural resources that includes the intensely lush equatorial rainforests of Central Africa and the world-famous populations of wildlife of the eastern and southern portions of the continent. While agriculture (primarily subsistence) still dominates the economies of many African countries, the exploitation of these resources became the most significant economic activity in Africa in the 20th century.

Climatic and other factors like war and disasters have exerted considerable influence on the patterns of human settlements in Africa – with its plateau-like nature. While some areas appear to have been inhabited more or less continuously since the dawn of humanity, enormous regions – notably the desert areas of northern and south-western Africa – have been largely unoccupied for prolonged periods of time. Thus, although Africa is the second largest continent, it contains only about 10 percent of the world’s population and can be said to be under-populated.

The greater part of the continent has long been inhabited by Black peoples, but in historic times there also have occurred major immigrations from both Asia and Europe. Seventy-five percent or more of Africa is populated by youths who are less than 35 years old. Africa is also covered by about 85% arable land! It is richly blessed with human and natural resources. Lack of selfless leaders, high rate of corruption, ethnicity, military incursion into governance and religious bigotry are some of the economic development challenges of Africa. If African nations can ward-off these listed challenges and focus on self-development using local resources, African nations will be listed among the league of developed nations where there would be food security, higher rate of employment, higher life expectancy rate and zero tolerance to poverty!

Foreign immigrants are making their impacts in the socio-economic development of Africa. The Asians and Europeans are in charge of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and technologies. Asians are in charge of trades and processed foods manufacturing. Of all foreign settlers in Africa, the Arabs have made the greatest impact, especially in the northern part of the continent. The Islamic religion, which the Arabs carried with them from Asia, spread from North Africa into many areas south of the Sahara, so that many western African peoples are now largely Islamized. Other Africans are Christians, especially in eastern and southern Africa, with few Africans still practising the traditional religions.

The belief in foreign religion, alien to our culture and tradition, is also affecting our mutual trust for each other. Africa can supply the rest of the world with food and agricultural produce like yam, cocoa, maize, potatoes, orange, timber, bamboo, vegetables, and cattle but misunderstanding leading to civil war and insecurity will not allow this to happen. Africa is a big market because of its size. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a free trade area encompassing most of Africa. It was established in Kigali, Rwanda on 21 March 2018 by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, which has 44 parties and another 11 signatories, making it the largest free-trade area by number of member states, after the World Trade Organisation, and the largest in population and geographic size, spanning almost 1.3 billion people across the continent.

About two decades ago, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) were the focus of the world for economic development. But now it is the turn of Africa. The whole world is looking forward to Africa to rediscover itself and become an economic force to reckon with in the world. In December 2022, President Joe Biden hailed cooperation with Africa and said he looked forward to visiting the continent soon as he endeavours to expand ties with the continent. Africa has been crucial to China’s foreign policy since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1947. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was established in 2000 as a uni-multilateral partnership platform between China and 53 African states (all African states except Eswatini, which maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan).

The European Union, EU’s, partnership with Africa is a key priority for the two continents. This is because Africa is Europe’s closest neighbour and any progress or adversity that affects Africa will directly be felt by Europe. Also, Africa not only shares a rich history with EU countries, but also common values and interests. Through the Africa-EU partnership, the two continents engage in political and policy dialogues, and define areas of cooperative relationship with Africa. What is happening today in Africa, economically and politically, makes this relationship all the more important. The rampant take-over of democratic governments by military juntas, especially in West Africa, and high level of corruption in government circles are some of the issues needing urgent international attention.

Africa’s renaissance as a developed continent may not materialise because of global politics which makes it impossible for western world to intervene in countries where there are bad leaders called “national sovereignty”. Though we have a large number of people in Africa, we have low human capacity development. We have the natural resources including mineral resources and arable land, but we lack the wherewithal to develop them. Until our best brains in medicine, engineering and technology stay in Africa and until our leaders do not go for medical tourism and their children for education in western world, Africa’s renaissance may remain a mirage.

The economy and international politics are principally the cardinal policy agenda for good governance. They are meant to be sensitively identified as the critical factors that determine successful administration, if they are effectively prosecuted otherwise, a contrary score sheet manifests for such stewardship. If a country performs poorly in managing the supply of money along with activities of production and consumption of goods and services, there will not be growth in the economy. On the other hand, a nation that does not relate well (diplomatically) with other nations of the world, shall definitely suffer failure in most aspects of her human relations and in several aspects of social engagements among comity of nations. The reason is that no nation can survive by operating in isolation. There must be some level of interactive relationships among sovereign states, otherwise economic redundancy will eventually rear its ugly head, characteristically as the yardstick or a key performance index (KPI) applied for measuring and assessing  the administrative performance of such a nation. A government that administratively runs on faulty policy agenda in her external relations could consequentially attract a damaging economic impact in her global trade relationship. Such a situation is obviously rooted in antisocial stance, as is being observed by other neighbouring nations. And the economy can never advance or grow because no country can survive by operating in isolation.

The consequential trade outcomes that might not augur well for the expectations in an already drawn plan of an economy in the near future is, therefore, directly anchored on poor diplomatic relations (which no nation prays to experience in her diplomatic efforts and engagements). Sustainable diplomatic relations among nations therefore demands well articulated structural operations in the country with specific regards to healthy and mutually beneficial diplomatic interactions among nations; even at moments of political tensions that could occasionally arise due to divergent political ideologies, which could be diplomatically addressed. One strategy that is attractively applied as global best practices, to retain continuous trade and diplomatic relations, is the principle of conserving a permanent interest and not creating permanent enmity.

Over the years in most African nations, Nigeria has always played the “big brother’s role”, and has remained in the forefront of “peace keeping” missions and operations with provision of military forces and hard wares in so many countries within the African continent. That has always been the popular antecedents of the country’s external posture in her foreign policy within Africa. This diplomatic posture on foreign policy in African affairs is commendable although, its dynamics (financially and human input militarily) has always been a highly expensive sacrificial project. The latest loading military encounter is the recent ECOWAS position, to apply military force against the military coup in Niger that toppled Mohamed Basoum’s democratically elected administration.

The West African regional bloc heads of state have been meeting, and are bent on dismantling the military rule of the junta, by military force. The resolution of these African heads of state, with regards to their insistence of zero tolerance on democratic disruptions within the regional bloc is logically germane but, the big question we all need to sincerely ask ourselves is, “are these military interferences exposing and condemning corrupt practices of the democratically elected national leaders within the sub-region?” Especially if the military action taken by dislodging the corrupt leaders is genuinely executed (in the interest of the generality of her citizens that might be suffering misrule); and every allegation levelled against the corrupt leaders are found to be true. Another question that follows would be, what position would be the best strategic approach to be taken in actualizing the zero tolerance stance against democratic distortions by military juntas (who obviously stepped on toes in their own decision to righting the wrongs of their internal politics)? Although no one should in the wildest estimation think or support mutiny in a democratically established government, diplomacy, of course, in a situation like this should be the most feasible option to be applied by Nigeria. Moral suasion and justification demand that a strong diplomatic delegation be deployed for persuasion rather than attacking the military junta that has purportedly and genuinely sanitised the polity (by their own advised action, and judged from their perspective, according to their internal political issues and challenges, for the overwhelming public interest).

Nigeria as a sovereign state should be advised, not to unnecessarily waste human beings, money, time and energy to go to war, if any dethroned leader was eventually confirmed to have been deep in corrupt malpractices (although military coups are outrightly condemned going against democratically elected administrations across the land, as has repeatedly been emphasised). What Nigeria needs to do at this critical moment, is to focus more on her economic engagements and business exploits, rather than exerting much energy on the issues of war in a foreign land, while our internal economic situation is presently in a complete mess (by known economic and financial indicators). A strategic approach on how to achieve democratic success within the regional bloc that can dislodge the military rule diplomatically should be vigorously pursued. The approach will aid Nigeria to succeed in her plans, to actualize the long term planned gas exports to Europe through access and utilisation of the gas pipelines that traverse Niger and Algeria.

Infrastructure provision is at its lowest ebb in developing nations because of dearth of funds, high rate of corruption and lack of a maintenance economy. These infrastructures are developments like roads, farms, housing, lifts in highrise buildings, security, water, industries, sewerage, dams, bridges, electricity grid, telephone lines, parks, medical facilities, educational facilities, sport facilities, markets and so on, which are necessary for the smooth operation of a community. Infrastructure bridges the gap between people and opportunities for food security, shelter, employment, medical care, education, transportation and security. Sustainable infrastructures like clean energy, sustainable buildings, electric cars and waste recycling plants can help reduce greenhouse gases emission and mitigate climate change. Businesses cannot avoid the use of sound infrastructure in their day-to-day activities.

The impact of shortage of essential infrastructure in developing nations can be reduced to a bearable minimum by economical, efficient and effective management of the available infrastructure through adoption of a maintenance economy. Most businesses in developing nations fail due to lack of a maintenance economy. Businesses must therefore see maintenance culture as a tool for infrastructure provision and conscientiously embrace it. Infrastructure, including plants and machineries, deteriorates after long years of abandonment and suffers wear and tear after intensive usage without proper maintenance. Infrastructure has a lifespan like human beings. If not managed properly, infrastructure’s life will be cut short! Disservice, mal-functioning and non-functional infrastructures are as good as no infrastructure. Adequate maintenance of infrastructure will elongate life and reduce dearth of infrastructure.

Facilities management starts with facility planning and can serve as an essential tool for facilities provision. Communities throughout all developing nations are facing unprecedented economic, social and environmental challenges that make it imperious for the public and private sectors to collaborate in business. Most glaring amongst these challenges is the dearth of infrastructure especially in the urban areas. These new forces are incredibly diverse, but they share an underlying need for modern, efficient and reliable infrastructure as Robert Puentes indicated in a 2015 study. The infrastructures in developing nations are not only inadequate, they are also grossly non-functional due to poor management and decay. For communities to experience strong business growth, essential and functional infrastructures must be available, especially roads for distribution of goods and services.

Clean environment, functional facilities, concrete roads, steel houses, glass roofs, asphalt pavement, fibre-optic cable and clean energy are the important building blocks of economies. They are the inputs of physical infrastructures which are needed for smooth running of the economy. Infrastructure enables trade, energises businesses, connects workers to their places of works, moves raw materials from production areas to industrial areas, creates a level playing ground for everybody and creates opportunities to succeed in business and protect communities from incessant natural disasters. Cameras on expressways, for example, can serve as monitoring devices to detect parts of the road in bad condition, real time. Bently Nevada’s System 1 is an example of software that can provide proven asset health management for real and sustainable results. It is particularly good for management of production machinery.

Facility management, according to the International Facility Management Association (IFMA, 2023), is a profession that encompasses multiple disciplines to ensure functionality, comfort, safety and efficiency of the built environment by integrating people, place, process and technology. In April 2017, the International Standard Organisation (ISO) published the ISO 41011:2017 standard for facility management and defined facility management as the organisational function which integrates people, place and process within the built environment with the purpose of improving the quality of life of people and the productivity of their core business.

Nwannekanma and Onyedika-Ugoeze writing in 2019 on this subject stated that facility management is capable of contributing towards reducing facilities costs, increasing the capacity to generate revenue and improving the productivity, image and core business of organisations. Probably, the greatest challenges facing infrastructure development in developing nations today is not infrastructure design, finance or the availability of technology for construction, but maintenance of the infrastructure after delivery. Maintenance can help elongate the lifespan of infrastructure and reduce their demand.

Most infrastructures in developing countries are in states of decay, disrepair and/or abandonment due to neglect and overuse without being maintained. The National Stadium in Surulere, Lagos, which was a cynosure of all eyes, is a shadow of itself now. It has been left without maintenance for years. The Chartered Institute Of Building (CIOB) in 1982 defined maintenance as “works undertaken to keep, restore or improve every facility, that is, every part of the building, its services and surroundings to agreed standards determined by the balance between need and available resources”.

Writing in 2011, M.O. Adedokun asserted that “without a strong maintenance culture, efforts at infrastructural development will amount to nothing”. While the demand for infrastructure is increasing geometrically, the supply of infrastructure by the public and private sectors is increasing arithmetically due to paucity of funds and in some cases, infrastructure provision remains stagnant necessitating effective management of the available structures for economic development/growth. The roles of infrastructure provision in the successful operation of businesses can best be viewed with the number of industries in Agbara Industrial Estate in Ogun State, Nigeria, that have folded up due to lack of good roads. Guinness Nigeria Plc, understanding the importance of good road infrastructure to business entities, undertook the construction of the road leading to its plant in Ikeja under Lagos State tax holiday programme.

Former Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, said Nigeria will require N1.3 trillion to fix its roads in 2022. This came after a lot of havoc had been caused by the state of Nigeria’s road infrastructures which had decayed, failed and/or been abandoned. W. Olatunde, in a 2009 article, is of the opinion that “understanding the importance of project sustainability will mean incorporating long term facility management agreements in all major projects”. These projects include business concerns. He went further to state that Nigeria was littered with laudable but failed projects due to lack of maintenance culture. Business survival depends on how effective facility management can be used to provide infrastructure in developing nations. Businesses which are desirous of saving costs of production and improving performance should take maintenance economy, that is the planning, budgeting for maintenance and execution of maintenance as at when due, serious.

One of the key policies of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration in Nigeria is the unification of exchange rates of the national currency at the foreign exchange market by ‘fiat’; otherwise called Naira floatation or (un)wilful devaluation. This singular policy, in spite of its perceived good intentions, has, from the onset, commenced the crashing of the Naira against other hard currencies, especially the Dollar, Pound Sterling, the Euro and others. While the national currency exchanged at about N460/US$1 in May, by August 10, 2023, it was exchanging at about N955/US$1 in the parallel (or black) market. Almost two months after the policy commenced, its twin goals of facilitating a “realistic” exchange rate and eliminating the wide gap existing between official exchange rate and parallel (or black) market rates have remained a mirage.

As a point of fact, today, the gap between the official exchange rate (called I & E window) at N767.76/US$1 and the black market rate at N956/US$1 is close to N200/US$1. And the likelihood of further deterioration remains very high (unless the unexpected happens). This pessimism is purely founded on the interplay of market forces — demand and supply — which is what the authors of the exchange rates unification policy want to rule the forex market. And barring any unforeseen, the Naira is surely on the fast lane to crashing to N1000/US$1 and beyond anytime this year — with devastating effects on the economy. Already, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has heightened the anxiety in the land when, a few days ago, it said “loose fiscal and monetary policies” being put in place in Nigeria make it difficult for the Naira to stabilise. Such policies have rather unleashed and sustained volatility in the forex market.

This fate of the national currency is largely ineluctable, because the supply of dollars in Nigeria is seriously constrained by very low non-oil export earnings (Nigeria being almost a mono-product economy that depends on crude oil). Yet, in the forex market, demand is very high (even if artificial), largely driven by speculators, hoarders and massive unchecked money laundering by state and non-state actors. Politicians, public office holders, bandits, kidnappers, and ‘connected’ contractors, aided by lax oversight of officers of deposit money banks and bureaux de change, are driving the forex market with ill-gotten Naira. Dollar demand by genuine commercial enterprises and manufacturers truly constitute a minuscule of the weight against the Naira.

Regrettably, too, some ancillary policies of the government of the day are not helping matters. For instance, the government, rather than initiating moves to have local refining/supply of petrol, keeps licensing more importers of premium motor spirit (PMS). Obviously, these importers of PMS have joined in the huge demand for dollars in the forex market — and this puts further pressure on the already weakened Naira. This exactly is what is playing out; and as these importers deploy so much Naira to get the dollar, it pushes up their ‘landing cost’, leading to a spiral of further increase in the pump price of PMS. Already, reports indicate that oil marketers (importers) are warning that the cost of PMS would rise to between N680/litre and N720/litre in the coming weeks — since the dollar keeps trading from N910 to N950/US$1 at the parallel market.

Still on the supply side, Nigeria is still faced with an acute shortage of dollars. Indeed, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of which Nigeria has been a member for upwards of five decades, in its oil market report for August showed the continued decline in the volume of Nigeria’s crude oil production/export for a while. OPEC’s report shows that Nigeria’s oil production has dropped to slightly below one million barrels per day in July 2023 from the prior level of two million barrels per day. Concomitantly, the bizarre phenomenon of oil theft has kept ravaging the crude oil sector — leaving the nation with very little to export. Again, OPEC’s report for July 2023 has shown that Nigeria has lost its prime position as the largest oil producer/exporter on the African continent. It has been overtaken by Angola, Algeria and Libya.

In terms of foreign exchange reserves, Nigeria — Africa’s largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — ranks low too. In fact, the country is ranked fourth (with reported reserves of US$43 billion) behind Libya (US$88.4 billion), Algeria (US$79.4 billion) and South Africa (US$61.5 billion). This report for August 2023, by agenceecofin.com says that although Nigeria has huge oil and other resources “but with lean revenue to show for it, due to controversial issues such as corruption, subsidy and other internal socio-economic factors.”

Even as the country is confronted by this dire situation, the powers that be are yet to commence any effective measures to stem the tide of the Naira collapse. Rather than undertaking any initiative — such as a meaningful non-oil export drive — to earn more dollars, the nation’s high import-dependency remains “as usual”. Curiously, in the past couple of months, forex demand for “invisibles” (including medical tourism, academic pursuits, etc.) has been on the increase. Desperate unemployed youths keep deploying all tricks and methods to procure forex and pay their way out of Nigeria to practically any other country. The ‘japa’ phenomenon has assumed a life of its own: Nigerians of various ages, social strata and education are leaving the country in droves.

In the corporate sector where many blue chips and multinationals operate, not a few of them have millions of their (un-repatriated) revenues trapped. Many have literally been forced to ‘re-invest’ their duly earned dividends in their businesses — against the plans and policies of their parent companies in the metropoles. Today, the situation has gotten to a crisis point, where some are ceasing operations in Nigeria, and moving to other more stable and business-friendly climes. Apart from the British pharmaceutical giant — GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) — which recently officially announced the formal closure of its operations in Nigeria, many others are feared to be warming up to close shop in the country too.

It is no longer news that virtually all major companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reported huge “forex losses” in their first half 2023 statements. These losses that run into billions in Naira terms, if unchecked, could be replicated even in worse dimensions in the second half 2023 — and render these businesses bankrupt. Meanwhile, these businesses, in pursuit of survival strategies, are being compelled by the forex challenges to ‘withhold’ their expansion, growth/recruitment plans, among others.

For Nigeria as a ‘corporate entity’, it is already very ‘highly geared’; and does not have the elbow room to raise more funds (via bonds) from the international financial markets. It is no longer news that practically a hundred percent of the federal government revenue is being deployed to public debt servicing. Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) is also known to have raised the alarm that the country’s debt profile is no longer sustainable. It is therefore obvious that Nigeria, as far as access to dollar (inflow) is concerned (whether via earnings or borrowing) is already in a very tight corner. In view of this, any manipulation of the available dollar stock by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ‘strengthen’ the Naira is certainly unsustainable.

Nigeria cannot ‘eat its cake and have it’ by fully liberalising the foreign exchange market (full Naira floatation) and turn round to be secretly influencing the exchange rate of the local currency. It is either clearly another policy somersault to quickly retreat from Naira floatation or a voodoo or abracadabra for the apex bank to be ‘propping’ the local currency secretly. Certainly, both local and foreign investors and all stakeholders will see such ‘new strong Naira’ as merely artificial and deceptive. Yet, in the forex market, transparency and integrity are key.

Fix this economy and manage public affairs without further, undue overbearing economic complexities that continue to becloud transparent representative governance. This remark is not necessarily an overstatement, rhetorically; nor does it sound like rocket science. It is a feasible, doable and actionable stewardship expected to be rendered by those in places of authority and power in a normal and functional democratic economy. Some Nigerians definitely will react by passing pessimistic comments, characterised by low-morale remarks like, “it is easier said than done”. Such a view, if made by anybody, is permissible, in the sense that people’s views are normally made from diverse and respective perspectives, and ought to be respected. The only convincing point that supports my personal view is substantiated by 15 years of strong and steady insistence on my argument over issues of energy production, marketing and consumption in the oil and gas industry of the economy. I may be wrong in this view because the country has a lot of qualified, certified and tested technocrats, and experts from the related and relevant professions that handle economic, financial and political issues (in their official capacities). Such personalities may technically have superior procedures and processes to solving these challenges facing the nation. However, everyone has been around in the system, and yet our economic issues got to this stinking and very embarrassing level; a country that is endowed with natural and human resources (including crude oil and gas).

The news of a $3 billion loan secured by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) with the aim of stabilising the naira has attracted some public comments among every class of Nigerians in the society. No matter the good that may be attached to its liquidity impact on foreign exchange it portends as ingested in the economy, that would ease off stress and pressure over the local exchange rate; so what? I beg to differ completely with such a school of thought, on the basis that such borrowed funds on their own merit, are an embarrassing financial stress that would not impact on productivity in a country that is already labelled a “consumer nation”. Refining locally (the most effective means to efficiently generate foreign exchange), has continued to pose the major challenge that those in charge have completely decided to ignore, and they go aimlessly, beating about the bush (abandoning the substance of the matter). If I may ask, what has happened to the earlier borrowed $1.5 billion in 2021 for rehabilitation of the 150,000 and 60,000 bpd refineries in Port Harcourt (have they started operations)? One starts to wonder if such action was taken in the aftermath of President Tinubu’s assurances that the price of petrol will not be increased again under his watch, which has immediately attracted a section of the citizens who have been speculating that his statement amounted to reintroduction of petrol subsidy into the economy, through the back door (which to my mind, may not be as they suspect). The truth about the whole development is that most Nigerians have completely lost confidence in the information that filters from those in governance, based on the fact that too many times in the past, they’ve been embarrassingly fed with a pack of lies and all manners of false reports/information, to their greatest surprises.

Economically, we have all seen where we are today (with the free fall of the naira). Everyone of us is shamelessly busy, contributing and discussing fuel subsidy removal (with hopeless and frustrating debates on cushioning the effect by palliatives), and the way out of the current economic mess; the high cost of living, high inflation rate, and very unsustainable volatile consumer-expenditure without commensurate means of replacement packages attached to salaries, other remunerations and wages. The bottom line of all of these economic challenges, rests on total lack of local value-addition on our God-given “black gold” (local refining of the crude oil). No other reason! If the fuel subsidy removal and deregulation on refined products had come much earlier than now (like 13 – 15 years ago), the nation wouldn’t have been going through this present harsh economic experience over the value of the naira that is now exchanged at N1,000/$. The economic impact would not have been this severe with the toll it now takes on every Nigerian, if precautionary measures (fiscal, monetary and investment policies) had been timely effective. All of us now experience the influence of local refining over the integrity status of the local currency exchange worth, based on the mounting pressure on dollar demand to import refined products. Every other economic sector is as important but the oil and gas sub-sector is significantly highly influential in our “mono-export economy”. No productivity, no foreign exchange accruals from exports of finished products. Self sufficiency and a net exporter on refined products would have been the economic status to solve this current problem of weak and tumbling naira exchange rate. I am happy that the present economic reality has now exposed the outrageous claims over the daily domestic demands of petrol, which has now “realistically tumbled” from 67 million litres (as claimed by the oil authorities), down to 40 million litres, and presently further down to about 23 million litres. Judging from the economic formula of GDP/National Economic Efficiency (NEE); it is the fuel imports component that ruined this economy (based on its significant ratio of total imports). The formula of NEE = Investment + Government Expenditure + Consumer Expenditure – Imports; where the imports component far outweighs all others, brings the economy/NEE to a negative value; which amounts to a distressed economy.

The current economic situation of many Nigerians, be they unemployed, employed or small business operators is, to say the least, perplexing and confusing. Inflation continues to worsen the cost of living of the populace eroding the purchasing power of citizenry with no succour in sight. Even though inflation is a concept that affects all of us, most importantly high inflation is hostile to even the economy. With persistent inflation, businesses and households will continue to perform poorly and we will continue to pay more for the same goods and services. The consequence and impact of inflation (price instability) in recent times in Nigeria cannot be over-emphasized. We have witnessed job losses, an increase in malnutrition, declines in social status,  food insecurity, high levels of different forms of begging from family, neighbours and friends and so on. Likewise, most Nigerians in small businesses are struggling to survive daily because of low sales, accelerating inflation and worsening living conditions. It may even result in a higher mortality rate in the short term because when health care is expensive and unaffordable it will widen the inequality that already exists. More lower-income earners are likely to replace healthier food options with what is available, which could be toxic and detrimental to health. Because the cost of living crisis affects more than just our bank accounts, it hurts and affects mental health as it increases worry and anxiety.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the headline inflation rate for May 2023 was 22.41 percent and  22.79 percent for June 2023. The same inflation rate was 15.68 percent in 2016 and 9.01 percent in 2015. Currently, the inflation rate in Nigeria is the highest in the last 17 years and this is a cause for concern. Though cost-of-living and inflation crises are typically global, the impact is more on the African continent. For instance, inflation in Ghana reached 42.50 percent in July 2023, the highest level in two decades. Ghana has over 100 percent increase in food prices and transportation costs. Energy costs have risen dramatically. Inflation is running at 44.81 percent for Sierra Leone as of June 2023, the highest in recent times, driven by food and fuel inflation and the depreciation of the ‘leone’. Inflation has risen to 36 year-high in Congo and many African countries are under growing pressure of high inflation and an unbearable cost of living.

Even though it is a global phenomenon at this time, the steady inflation in most African countries has been largely driven by the effects of the war in Ukraine, food, fuel and energy costs. In Nigeria, forex unification, government policies, public debt and recently reviewed fuel costs are the main causes. Importantly, when prices of energy, food, commodities, goods, and services go up, purchasing power usually goes down. The persistent rise in the inflation rate may continue to erode the value of  African currency against the dollar and continue to cause general price instability and this is a concern.

Based on the aforementioned and from the inflationary perspective, to achieve adequate price stability, the government needs to adopt significant structural policy reforms, and tight monetary and fiscal policies to maintain stronger growth rates in terms of improved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to stabilise the tide of inflationary pressures on our economy. The stipulated palliative of N500 billion to poor households by the federal government of Nigeria is laudable. However, it is expedient to consider support for the structured small-scale businesses that are priorities for economic growth, job creation and social cohesion. Recent empirical studies show that SMEs contribute to over 60 percent of GDP and over 70 percent of total employment in low-income countries, while they contribute over 95 percent of total employment and about 70 percent of GDP in middle-income countries. So it is my opinion that to stimulate the Nigerian economy a substantial part of the N500 billion palliatives can be considered as loans at 0% interest to structured, traceable and collateralised SMEs with repayment of within five years. As such it will improve working capital, and stimulate businesses through technology adoption, asset acquisitions and business growth. The SME sector can play a major role in economic growth at this point through poverty reduction, and job creation. The sector is labour-intensive and can provide a reasonable reduction in the level of unemployment rate in the country but the government needs to provide an adequate enabling environment and palliative. It is further advocated that political leaders should minimise avoidable public spending, strengthen the judicial system, stiffen the anti-corruption drive, address insufficient infrastructure, and build strong and effective institutions.

Furthermore, institutions and individuals have the opportunity to beat inflation by accelerating the preservation of capital and strengthening purchasing power with income addition. This can be done by acquiring investments, particularly assets such as real estate, because they usually keep up with inflation. Remember one million naira (N1,000,000) today will not acquire the same value of goods and services in 10 years, mainly due to inflation. Therefore, investing is key to hedge against a sharp inflation impact because it erodes the value of savings if funds are just left in the bank accounts.

Conclusively, it is imperative to consider investing in other currencies, diversify your investment portfolio internationally if you can, and consider inflation-protected securities with potential for higher growth like equities, Gold Shares ETF, or mutual funds. These can earn more interest returns per year than the inflation rate; therefore, the options are reasonable. It is also possible to start a business, cultivate passive income generation, and/or even reduce unnecessary expenditures to increase the propensity to save. You might need to reach out using the details below for the necessary advice or for any further information you may require. Good Luck!

Chido Nwakanma is a communication strategist, journalist and journalism educator with extensive experience in IMC and strong interest in developing humanity. He can be contacted at chido@brandhaus.ng and via SMS on +234 (0) 803 723 1111; (0) 812 647 4335.

 

Message from Prof Pat Utomi

 

Professor of Political Economy Pat Utomi lit up the blogosphere on Friday, 11 August, with tweets disclosing his diagnosis and ongoing treatment for prostate cancer. The tweets received critical attention in the media and drew concerns from several stakeholders. The Jacksonites Alumni Association was a primary stakeholder.

Pat Utomi has one central message. Tell all men above 50 years (and critically above 60) to commence a habit of regular prostate tests. Early detection is critical to avoid the ravages of deformed prostate, including prostate cancer.

Jeremiah Agada forwarded the tweets to Susan Eshett and me to alert us and to inquire if we knew. Neither of us knew. Nor did many people close to the professor.

Mobilisation followed. I contacted members of the Jacksonites directly and on the group and class platforms. On Saturday, we would visit the gentleman in solidarity and learn of his challenge first-hand.

Prof Patrick Okedinachi Utomi, Class of 1977, has led The Jacksonites Alumni Association since its inception as a social media-enabled (WhatsApp) engagement and networking outreach. He brought it down to earth by hosting the first physical reunion at his home. As General Secretary, I mobilised members for the visit.

The Jacksonites are alumni of the mass communication department of the University of Nigeria. UNN founder Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe named the first departmental building after his journalism heroes, the father and son team of John Payne and Horatio Jackson, who ran the Lagos Weekly Record in the 1930s.

We met Prof Utomi in better health than we feared. Apart from losing weight, he appeared in good form and in high spirits. Significantly, he was more concerned with others.

Utomi’s tweets on Friday aimed to attract attention and set an agenda of sensitisation of Nigerian males 50-and-above against the dangers of malfunctioning prostate glands.  His battle with a diagnosis of prostate cancer accounted for his absence in his accustomed role as a public intellectual and concerned citizen since after the 2023 election.

Utomi tweeted: “When a biopsy showed I was positive last year, I began treatment with a cancer Centre with a branch in Ikeja and VI. I sometimes came from [the] election campaigns to the Ikeja Centre near the Airport. The Doctors would try to smuggle me out from the back.

“I am moved [by] this dawn of light to confront an epidemic under the carpet with great harm to men. Prostate cancer is bringing death and misery to many men. Had they been forewarned, the misery containment and even chances of cure could be much enhanced, as women have with breast cancer.”

Once the election ended, his family members in Nigeria and abroad pressured Utomi to extend his treatment to specialists in the United States. They collaborated with his better half, a professor of dentistry and a specialist centre in Lakeshore, USA. Part of the regimen included reduced access to his phones and media. Rest and treatment were the observances.

“That’s how come it seemed I went quiet ’cause they controlled my phones to reduce stress,” Utomi disclosed.

Utomi is a crucial figure in the Labour Party. He was a central strategist in ensuring that the Labour Party came from nowhere to become a critical Third Force in Nigerian politics and a voice for the youth and unrepresented demographics.

Jacksonites present during the visit were Ugo Onuoha (85), a former MD of Champion Newspapers Limited, Susan Eshett (86), erstwhile NTA and communications executive at Exxon-Mobil, Emma Esinnah, Country Director of fitness firm Curves International and Director, Africa Franchise Center, and Ejike Ekwegbalu, MD/CEO of Midworld Resources Limited and former senior executive at Intercontinental Bank. Others were Mr Vivian Ikem, Corporate Affairs and Communications Director at Habanera Limited, Dr Marcel Mbamalu, publisher of Prime Business Africa, Mr Ikem Okuhu, public relations strategist and author, Mr Jeremiah Agada, Deputy Editor at Brand Communicator and Manager at Awesome Communication and Victor Ezaja of Prime Business Africa.

Men and their Prostate

Utomi stayed under the radar following the counsel of family members. He could not contain himself further following two incidents. During a call, a former airline managing director disclosed his ongoing treatment for prostate problems. Out of church recently, a former vice-chancellor also recounted the same challenge.

His doctors said the Urology Units of many hospitals were now centres of attraction and interest for many men with plumbing concerns or problems.

Experts caution men to regularly do the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test in hospitals or laboratories. They should be more concerned if they have any of these symptoms:

•   Difficulty starting urination.

•   Weak or interrupted flow of urine.

•   Urinating often, especially at night.

•   Trouble emptying the bladder completely.

•   Pain or burning during urination.

•   Blood in the urine or semen.

WebMD.com reports that the prostate is a small gland part of the male reproductive system. It is about the shape and size of a walnut.

“It rests below your bladder and in front of your rectum. It surrounds part of the urethra, the tube in your penis that carries pee from your bladder. The prostate helps make some of the fluid in semen, which carries sperm from your testicles when you ejaculate.

This Gland Can Grow

“As you age, your prostate can become larger. It’s a normal part of ageing for most men.

By the time you reach age 40, your prostate might have gone from the size of a walnut to the size of an apricot. By the time you reach 60, it might be the size of a lemon.

Because it surrounds part of the urethra, the enlarged prostate can squeeze that tube. This causes problems when you try to pee. Typically, you won’t see these problems until you’re 50 or older, but they can start earlier.

You might hear a doctor or nurse call this condition benign prostatic hyperplasia, or BPH for short. It is not cancerous.

Who Might Get an Enlarged Prostate?

BPH is common and cannot be prevented. Age and a family history of BPH are two things that increase the chances you might get it. A few stats on that:

• Some eight out of every ten men eventually develop an enlarged prostate.

•   About 90% of men over the age of 85 will have BPH.

•   About 30% of men will find their symptoms bothersome.

Treatments

How your doctor handles your condition depends on the details of your case — your age, how much trouble it’s causing, and more. Treatments may include:

Watchful waiting. If you have an enlarged prostate but are not bothered by symptoms, you may be advised to get an annual check-up, which might include a variety of tests.

Lifestyle changes. This includes cutting back on how much you drink at night and before bedtime, especially drinks with alcohol or caffeine.

Medicine. Common treatments for BPH are alpha-blockers, which ease BPH symptoms, and what’s called 5-alpha reductase inhibitors, or 5-ARIs, which help shrink the prostate. Many men may take them together.

Surgery. Men with severe symptoms whom other treatments haven’t helped might have to undergo surgery. Talk to your doctor about possible risks and outcomes.”

Dear Nigerian men above 50: what is the health of your prostate? Could you check this week and regularly? That is Prof Pat Utomi’s message and concern.

Businesses are established as ‘going-concerns’ and ‘hubs of profit-making’, but the reality is that approximately two-third of new businesses do not survive after ten years in the United States of America (USA). The global average is far higher than this, especially in developing nations. According to some 1990s data from Bureau of Labour Statistics, an American principal fact-finding agency for the American Federal Government in the broad field of labour economics and statistics, 20 percent of new businesses fail during the first two years after being opened, 45 percent during the first five years, and 65 percent during the first ten years. Only 25 percent of new businesses make it to 15 years or more. These statistics have not changed much over time, and have been fairly consistent till now. In Africa, businesses are closing down every day because of ‘hard times’, including lack of raw materials, epileptic electricity supply, high cost of fuel (diesel and petrol) and high foreign exchange rate. The major factor is African businesses lack international market exposure!

In today’s business environment, with the economic crisis, especially with paucity of funds, high rate of uncertainties and high rate of foreign exchange, businesses are being told to down-size, cut expenses, pause projects, reduce stock or production or change advertising campaigns, but is there any data to support such recommendations? The straight answer is “no”. In most cases, businessmen listen to “armchair theorists” who opine and propose new developments in a field that does not involve primary or empirical research and the collection of new information. In some cases, the members of staff in the marketing department of manufacturing companies, sales representatives and stockists are under pressure to sell more or exit. Businesses ought to rely more on analysis of data and if they cannot harvest and analyse reliable data themselves, they should get professionals who can do them for their benefits. Businesses thrive based on the information they have at hand and how well they can use this information.

During the COVID-19 era, it was generally believed, based on economic psychology and not on econometrics, that people will buy less during pandemic and war periods. But econometrics has proved that people buy more properties in periods of wars and pandemics than in periods of peace and tranquillity. It is my belief that marketers who follow data – and ignore frivolous third party opinions – will position their companies better to support employees and customers and contribute to national economic recovery. Marketing researchers have shown that individual customers do not respond any differently to advertising during a crisis. As per marketing, what marketers can do is to have a wider reach through aggressive marketing and opening up of more outlets to push their products, and engage more distributors. In a period of economic crisis, marketers can only sell more through getting more customers and not through persuasion of old customers to buy more of their products. Business organisations may consider increasing, and not decreasing, their advertising budgets, especially those in the service industry.

According to Robert Harold Schuller (1926 – 2015), “Tough times never last, but tough people do”. Businesses which are having bad times may consider working more hours! A lot of successful companies, in crisis periods, gained market share by thinking outside the box and being innovative. In November 2005, during the beginning of the world acclaimed economic crisis that swept many businesses off, Cadbury Schweppes, the world’s largest chocolates and sweets company, agreed to sell its European soft-drinks business (Schweppes) to an Anglo-American private equity consortium for 1.85 billion Euros or £1.26 billion (pounds sterling). Corporate organisations can decide to sell part or their entire subsidiary to raise funds for operation and survival. Businesses may decide to concentrate production in a plant and reduce cost of operations in different plants, especially cost of leasing of real estate. Cadbury Dairy Milk, the producers of Cadbury chocolates decided to invest £15 million (pounds sterling) after Mondelez International’s, which made it possible for Cadbury’s Dairy Milk to return home to Bournville in Birmingham, UK after 115 years of production in Germany!

Some organisations have benefitted from social media marketing. It is now a disservice for any ‘customer-oriented business’ not to have social media campaigns on Facebook, Twitter, Tik Tok, WhatsApp, Instagram, YouTube, WeChat, LinkedIn, Sina Welbo, etc. Digital marketing reaches wider coverage and is comparatively cheaper to use than outdoor advertising. This assertion is based on the fact that more people use smartphones than stay outdoors. Organisations like Coca-Cola rely on “wholesaling” to market their products and weather the storm. Coca-Cola is a multinational beverage company that sells its products, including Coke, Sprite, and Fanta, to retailers through wholesalers. Coca-Cola has a vast network of wholesalers that distribute its products to retailers worldwide. Apart from the wholesalers, Coca-Cola also sells directly to retailers like supermarkets, hotels, corporate events and restaurants.

Organisations are also turning to outsourcing all or part of their operations to be in business in turbulent periods. NNPC Limited, Nigeria’s national oil company, said it will outsource the operations and management of the country’s refineries after ongoing rehabilitation. Under risk management, it is better to transfer risk to a party who can best manage it. Organisations can do better by not dealing in the aspect of its business that it does not know much about. A property developer can best contract a building engineering company to handle building constructions while he handles marketing and management. Third-party logistics organisations handle haulage of goods and products for organisations like Nigerian Bottling Company, manufacturers of Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, Five Alive and Eva Bottle Water; FrieslandCampina WAMCO, manufacturers of Peak Milk; Chi Limited, manufacturers of juices, nectars, milk, yoghurts, drinks, and snack foods; Rite Foods, manufacturers of Bigi sausage rolls and Bigi Cola; Lafarge, manufacturers of Portland cement, among others.

Among the strategies to be resilient in an economic crisis and win market share is the effective management of the “constraint ring’ of business. The “constraint ring” of business is triangular and has its three sides as “cost”, “time” and “quality”. Goods, products and services, which are the outputs of businesses, have three constraints of time, cost and quality. All businesses expend cost, time and have quality parameters (standards). In a period of crisis, organisations should strive to reduce cost and time of production of the same quality of product or improve the quality of their products within the same cost and time of production. XYZ Farms is a company which has Fame Oyster & Co. Nigeria as its value management consultants. As at June 2023, a tonne of maize, a staple food used in the production of chicken feeds, cost N250,000.00 (for white) and N270,000.00 (for yellow) maize in Nigeria. The price of sorghum per tonne at the same period was N30,000.00. Sorghum can almost perfectly serve as a substitute for maize in chicken feed production. Sorghum based chicken feed was advised as a replacement for maize.

Organisations which have survived turbulent periods in the past are organisations that resolved not to fold up in times of crises. They either increase their spending on production (upscale), reduce their rate of operation or volume of production (soft-pedal) or change their strategy, like changing raw materials, products or diversifying into other fast moving goods (re-strategise) or improve the value of their product without increasing the price or maintain the value and reduce the price. In doing this, they do not go below the break-even point. They seldom temporarily close shop (hibernate) or lay off their workers (downsize) or reduce spending (economise).

International politics is one critical aspect of human activities that requires much focused attention and the full caution it demands for a seamless, successful and sustainable international trade. This “3-S” observation on international trade or business is made, based on the sensitive nature of human relations among peoples of diverse cultural backgrounds that keep engaging in various trans-border economic and commercial activities in the international business arena. This therefore, involves the application of diplomacy in the engagement (in a continuous manner) by prospective partners with a common interest on any specified deal. That approach shall enable those involved to actualize the targeted mutual benefits for all stakeholders, in the course of prosecuting the deal.   

On that note, the gas pipeline ‘project restart’ worth $13 billion, “Declaration of Niamey” that was signed on 16th February 2022 by Nigeria, Niger and Algeria, is a deal that needs to be treated with utmost caution, now that the ECOWAS leaders are taking a stand against the Nigerien military junta that recently took over power from Mohamed Bazoum, the ousted president of the Republic of Niger. The project’s tripartite intergovernmental arrangement, earlier signed by their respective energy ministers on natural gas exports to Europe, many years earlier, had in the past suffered safety concerns heightened by regional insecurity. The insecurity included the terrorist incidence of 2013 which had destabilised past moves within its operational frontiers. The most recent political development in Niger has again posed to be yet another worrisome political issue within the West African sub-region, which might hamper progress on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline deal. This, however, is viewed to either make or mar the prospects of this highly priced trans-border business exploit (which had already been attractively advised to be technically and economically feasible and reliable), if not carefully, effectively and delicately handled with the diplomacy that it demands.

The high end European energy market should remain the major focus for the NNPC Limited, to successfully penetrate (with the available marketing advantage offered by the ongoing Ukrainian–Russian war, and the damaged Nordstrom pipeline that had made Russia in past years enjoy a monopoly on the European gas market). Gas industry watchers are aware that Nigeria has made huge investments with regards to this particular gas pipeline project to Europe since the 1970s. The huge investments already made, have to be efficiently deployed in all operations along the gas value chain; this will include the ongoing Ajaokuta – Kaduna – Kano (AKK) gas pipeline with Ajaokuta at the starting point. The entire pipeline length that covers a distance of 4,188 kilometres (from Nigeria to Algeria) includes 841 kilometres within the length and breadth of Niger Republic. Apart from the already committed investments within Niger, there seems to be no other feasible and available route that could be considered as an alternative route to bypass the Republic of Niger (if Niger territorial space eventually becomes impassable due to the current political developments). Any other route (if diplomatic negotiations/ties between Nigeria and Niger collapse), would definitely be a tall order (by geographical permutations), and such an option might adversely reset the entire business programme and agenda. We pray it does not degenerate into that situation. It is hoped that the Niger crisis/Niger coup d’etat in the Sahel region would not set the entire gas supply chain to the European market backwards.

Nigeria is an economy that presently needs to utilise every available marketing tool to improve her international trade relations with all her international trading partners. This perceived strategy is most desired, especially now that the economy is facing very embarrassing financial turmoil, visibly presented by the increasing debt profile, due to all the external loans and borrowed funds in recent years. It is understandable that export of our goods and services remains an avenue, and at the same time, an attractive option that the government needs to vigorously pursue. With the opportunity of being heavily endowed with the hydrocarbon natural resources (both crude oil and natural gas), it offers the economy the privileges to explore and exploit the economic advantages inherent therein. It is therefore suggested that effective management remains the only hope this economy could deploy to salvage an already and terribly battered economy. The local currency exchange rate is still tumbling, hitting a record high figure of N960 per US dollar. Every aspect of the economic index appears to present a hostile business environment (especially the astronomical high cost of energy, and the already existing hyperinflation on all known commodities/foods in the market). This unsustainable high cost of living is choking! May those in authority deploy diplomacy (adequately enough) towards resolving the present Niger political issue, so that it does not in any way, disrupt the existing plan nor affect the nation’s hope of exporting her gas capital stock through the Niger territorial space, for export to the European gas market.