Category: Comments

By Ikem Okuhu

 

I am not an expert in international diplomacy but my experience in Public Relations practice tells me that President Muhammadu Buhari’s appeal on April 27, 2021 for the United States to relocate its AFRICOM command headquarters from Germany to Africa was a diplomatic disaster and something the American government would very likely exploit to squeeze the last drop of blood in the pitiably gaunt frame of Nigeria’s fast-fading dignity. Since the virtual bilateral exchange between President Buhari and Antony Blinken, diplomatic hazard lights have been blinking endlessly with news and rumours of how President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been avoiding overtures to hold conversations with the Nigerian leader.

If information from the Council on Foreign Relations, a United States nonprofit think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs, is anything to go by, the US will not only not heed Buhari’s call; but might likely watch as the country is pushed deeper into the already intractable security mire. In an article published on May 3 on the Council’s website, www.cfr.org, John Campbell refreshed the minds of the global community of the hostile role Nigeria had played in frustrating the efforts to establish the AFRICOM command in Africa when the idea was being incubated in 2005.

Campbell who also referenced the impossibility of undertaking the relocation of the AFRICOM base, with all its logistics challenges, also hinted on the failure of the Nigerian military to cooperate with the US over the years as a stumbling block.

Hear him: “In addition to opposing AFRICOM in the first place, the Nigerian military authorities have been largely uncooperative with the U.S. military. Hence, U.S. military involvement in Nigeria beyond limited training operations is minimal, and the country does not host any American defense installations. Successive Nigerian governments have wanted to purchase sophisticated American military equipment but have rejected U.S. oversight. In fact, Nigerian purchases of U.S. military material have been rare, despite their high-profile, ultimately successful purchase of twelve A-29 Super Tucanos—sophisticated aircraft.”

Reading Campbell’s article is like reading America’s mind and I would have thought that, but for our peculiar forms of amnesia those driving Nigeria’s diplomatic tugboat should have known better than allow our president engage in such futile grovel. It seems that the voracious larvae that have eaten the nation’s military capabilities have also been gnawing away at our diplomatic foliage. If not, someone would have remembered that we once described AFRICOM as “neocolonialist” and even went on to lead the African resistance against it.

Nigeria is a very important country to the United States and will remain strategic for at least another 20 years when the oil economy is projected to yield grounds for cleaner energy. I suspect we might remain relevant even beyond that period. Our population counts for a lot and with our gas reserves still among the vastest in the world, the United States would still want to do business with us. I suspect they would want to be doing this business with a United Nigeria than with a fragmentation that could yield an unpredictable number of nationalities. This would however depend on whether the business they want to do with the country is the one of selling arms and military equipment to rebel and militia groups or strengthening federalist interests desirous of sustaining the now hugely challenged unity of the country.

The long-term cost benefit and other opportunity cost factors is most likely going to sway the US to think towards keeping Nigeria united but might push for a significant departure from the present system that is federal on paper but unitary in practice.

Nigeria needs to restructure. Given the cacophonous clamour for the balkanization of the country of recent, the parameters for reorganizing Nigeria might be difficult. In many parts of the north such as Plateau, Bauchi, Kaduna and Taraba, religion might be a major factor. In the southeast and south-south, harmonizing interests in assets are also clear and present challenges. The same applies to the southwest where an elite, whose bread are better buttered along the lines of the present structure, might also push for the maintenance of the status quo.

The country NEEDS this restructuring now. It is the only middle point between internecine violent partitioning and the current dysfunctional aberration called a federation.

Equally important is the need to reestablish the factors that made the Nigerian security forces excel in the past. Reading news of the fallen “morale” in the military and the dearth of equipment can be heartbreaking. Those interested in keeping Nigeria as one should rally to quickly effect changes and that should start with making past officers account for various monies invested in strengthening the military.

On December 14, 2017, governors of Nigeria’s 36 states approved the allocation of $1 billion from the country’s Excess Crude Oil Account to equip the military in fighting Boko Haram. Four years and a cobweb of other security challenges later, questions have arisen as to what use such a huge sum was put into.

Perhaps in an effort to pamper them away from military takeovers, the Nigerian political elite appear to have developed a penchant to allocating humongous resources to the military. This, many believe, is not so much about strengthening the military as it is about creating enough opportunities for enrichment by the top brass, ensuring maximum comfort for the political class in their business of resource (mis)management.

The case of the Nigerian Police is even more pathetic. The average Nigerian policeman has low self-esteem and is soaked in the culture of extracting rewards from the public rather than the Force. They are wired to have their eyes so trained on people’s pockets they don’t ever think of training for the task of proper securities management. That is why police stations, hitherto regarded as fortresses, have been picked off like soft targets by criminals mostly referred to as “unknown gunmen” in the media.

The police need a remake. But just before anyone goes off with heaping all the blame on these officers and men who are themselves, victims of a system that promotes mediocrity, Nigeria needs a total leadership rebirth. So long as the dregs of our society are allowed to rise to leadership positions, so long will the lines of national fracture continue its destabilizing stretch.

We cannot afford to let this continue.

• Concluded

 

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Okuhu, a former Special Assistant to Governor Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, is a journalist, author, farm entrepreneur, whose most recent book is ‘Pitch: Debunking Marketing’s Strongest Myths’

By Caesar Keluro

 

There are over 22 billion IoT-connected devices on earth and industry research estimates that by 2030 the number of connected devices could reach more than 50 billion. This will impact every aspect of African society. But a common service platform is a key enabler to catalyse the distribution of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across Africa using IoT/M2M application like a remote LPG data acquisition/delivery system; thereby, reinventing how we deliver LPG to millions of homes across Africa.

Nigeria is a net exporter of LPG in Africa. It produces over 2MTPA, consumes barely 15 per cent of the volumes and exports the rest. LPG is the least utilized of the four major cooking fuels – firewood, kerosene, charcoal, and gas. Per capita consumption is just above 1kg in Nigeria, which is comparatively less than other West African countries like Ghana (4.7kg) and Senegal (9kg) per capita (WLPGA). Nigeria spends over $1 billion per annum on kerosene subsidy and faces increasing environmental challenges with continuous deforestation as over 50 per cent of households still rely on firewood as cooking fuel.

IoT LPG distribution platform

Nigeria’s evolving LPG market demands a new paradigm enabled by a remote data acquisition system (IoT LPG distribution platform). This system would make it possible to improve the procedure for replacing LPG cylinders for consumers. This holds the potential to boost the efficiency of supply planning, higher stock performance on the distributor’s side and as a result provide a competitive edge in the market. With the combined dynamism of Nigeria’s LPG market and the power of IoT/M2M, we can significantly transform the way we distribute LPGs to over 20 million Lagosians, ushering new distribution possibilities and credit schemes for the 10 biggest urban areas across Nigeria and beyond.

African market is ripe for new intelligent platforms to bring LPG to homes in an efficient manner. We understand that the Nigeria market is dominated by these LPG Sizes: 12.5kg and 25kg LPG with over 3 million LPG cylinders in circulation. In a recent conversation with our overseas technology partner, we discovered that we can monitor 500,000 to one million LPG cylinders and retrofit each cylinder with sensors (IoT Devices) to read the gas levels and imbue it with extra capabilities where possible.

A proposed system architecture will look like this: A virtual dashboard, one that incorporates a mobile app for booking LPG with an analogue part that utilizes sensors and amplifier section; all riding on the back of our national cellular carriers. The arrival of Elon Musk’s Starlink and other satellites (e.g. YahClick, NIGCOMSAT) could potentially scale this service to rural areas with minimal GSM coverage. Smartphone Bluetooth technology and GSM networks can enable the collection of diverse dataset on the LPG cylinders and so help us to intelligently aggregate and deliver LPG cylinders/refills to residential estates or localities in an unprecedented manner.

A broken LPG distribution

Nigeria LPG market is deregulated and increasingly broken at the lower end of the value chain. Major marketers are Oando, Ultimate Gas, Gasland, Total, Ardova Plc, NNPC Retail, Techno Oil and emerging market leaders like ENYO Retail, Banner Gas Group. Our research revealed that trucking is the only inland transportation (recently tricycle buses), which aggravates our weak road networks and drives up retail LPG prices.

Also, there is a broken safety check system which leads to the proliferation of dangerous LPG cylinders in circulation thereby requiring the urgent need for cylinder revalidation and re-certification by regulators which our proposed system architecture can handle. 30-40% of Nigeria LPG distribution is led by unregulated street sellers who help bring LPG to the end users’ homes while experts have said the biggest barrier to LPG availability is poor distribution infrastructure/network.

A new LPG distribution platform architecture

With the platform LPG weight can be monitored automatically and if the gas cylinder is about to empty (thresholds can be set such as 5-10% of gas weight), then automatically a new cylinder booking can be triggered over a mobile app/by logging into the IoT LPG service Provider dashboard via GSM/Bluetooth data exchanges.

Our system is flexible enough to bring it to the notice of a user using a Mobile App and via this Mobile App, the user can trigger the booking of a fresh LPG cylinder or a refill. The system can also be used for complaints. It captures customer’s gas usage and inventory and is integrated into client’s supply chain. It is like an automatic tank gauge (atg) replicated/customized for LPG cylinders. As a result of our weak broadband services, we are using Bluetooth, edge Storage and analytics to mitigate internet /communication loss. Our technology partner’s platform supports multiple cylinder sizes, with user-friendly interface with single line diagram, dashboards, report and alerts with REST API for building additional applications.

Finally, we believe an IoT LPG delivery system should incorporate numerous subsystems, such as a geographic information system, an instantaneous LPG-consumption information system, a reporting system, and a failure diagnosis system. This system should not only provide historical information search, but also provides report sending and download functions, thus facilitating the users to view and research measured data. As a digital service platform, it will revolutionize the way we deliver LPG to homes and also serve as data source for regulatory agencies and policy making for African governments.

 

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Caesar Keluro is co-founder/CEO, Nanocentric Technologies Limited. He leads ‘Make In West Africa’, a regional Think-tank. He tweets https://twitter.com/KCaesar,  https://www.linkedin.com/in/caesarkeluro/

 By Michael Femi Sodipo & Karen Pinto

 

On a Monday two weeks ago, reports of attacks, abductions, unrest, and sectarian clashes in Borno, Niger, Lagos, Rivers, Kebbi, Kaduna, Oyo, Osun, and Benue states were reported all in one day. This type of unrest is not unusual. Bandit attacks and kidnapping are now commonplace. Ethnic and religious leaders warn their followers of mass violence against them, increasing fears and tensions that inspire more violence. Violence fueled by a potent mix of dangerous speech — speech that increases the risk for violence — and age-long grievances is growing. The worst form of profiling is taking place with tropes and stereotypes of groups used to propagate negative perceptions of them.

Wole Soyinka, the widely-admired Nigerian playwright and Nobel Prize laureate, has recently warned of possible genocide. With the spill-over of violence in the south of the country, it is urgent that we address dangerous speech and its fueling of cyclical violence.

 

We see media articles and social media posts featuring dangerous speech after acts of violence. The headline “killer herdsmen” is regularly used to refer to incidents when Fulani are involved, even as victims. On social media, influential figures like the former bandit leader, “Yellow” use WhatsApp and Facebook often to incite followers to use violence against Christian farmers while the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, posts inflammatory content about Hausas and Fulanis, using the term ‘zoo’ often on his Twitter account where he reaches nearly 300,000 followers.

 

Part of these narratives contain common threat perceptions about the Muslim herdsmen such as their alleged intention to wage jihad in Nigeria – and Christian farmers such as their alleged interest to dispose of Islam from Nigeria. News articles and social media posts that follow violent incidents often simplify them, use dehumanizing language about the other side, and justify violence against them. How do they do this? They use misleading images and headlines that reinforce dangerous stereotypes that dehumanize the other side and increase threat perceptions, leading to higher support for violence. Recent research shows that blatant dehumanization – dehumanization in obvious ways – is one of the strongest predictors of hostility between groups. It also predicts attitudes and policy support related to targeting civilians, support for collective punishment, and war.

 

As the examples demonstrate, dangerous speech is used as a tool by influential elites to mobilize groups against each other. Dangerous speech makes it easier to remove the moral concern associated with killing, discriminating, or torturing others based on their group identity; if they are not seen as human, it is easier to justify these acts against them. On the occasion of the International Day of Living Together in Peace (May 16th), Peace Initiative Network and Beyond Conflict invite you to help us counter dangerous speech in Nigeria.

According to a recent study we conducted, the path to addressing dangerous speech involves spreading narratives that rehumanize the other side, increasing the chances for sustainable peace. Over the past year, we studied how a storyline of a popular TV drama, which was created using insights from behavioral science about human perceptions and cognition, could help rehumanize “the other side.” The characters showed real emotions, relatable to many viewers, such as the anxiety felt by a young Christian woman learning that she was to be sent to a Muslim city for her NYSC deployment. Her Muslim colleague, also a young woman, is equally suspicious of her, based on stories she has heard about Christians. But they realize they have a lot in common as they get to know each other, such as their shared experience with inter-religious violence and their favourite music. They begin to build a friendship as the season continues.

 

The study interviewed 1,000 people from Kaduna, a hotspot for inter-religious violence over the past two decades, and found that after one to two months after the season finished, watchers reported better inter-religious attitudes and behaviours. Overall, they viewed members of different religious groups less as a threat, dehumanized them less and associated them with less negative traits.

 

The results of this research reflect that one of the best ways to rehumanize members of a group in conflict with another is to show common human traits. We can change the narratives by telling everyday stories of people from the other side living their lives in the same way and showing complex emotions. When we reflect on what is common to the human experience, such as family, grief, growing up and parent/child relationships, we begin to challenge the critical essence that posits that one group is lesser than the other.

 

Nigeria is diverse and the challenge now is how to make ‘unity in diversity’ not only meaningful but also peaceful. You have the power to denounce dangerous speech and rehumanize the other side. You have the power to stop the cycle of violence. Join us today in making a stand against violence by signing the Peace-builders’ Pledge against the Use of Dangerous Speech in our Communities.

 

By Dr. Michael Femi Sodipo is of Peace Initiative Network; Karen Pinto is of Beyond Conflict

By Timi Olubiyi, Ph.D

 

The coronavirus pandemic has negatively affected the global economy and more severely developing nations of Africa, particularly Nigeria. The COVID-19 has been devastating in terms of the impact on Nigeria’s economy, businesses, and households. We have seen a troubling trend in the country in recent times, with businesses and activities facing increasing levels of competitive pressure and difficulties, coupled with persistent insecurity, and inflationary pressure where high price increases have continued in transportation, food cost, household needs, raw materials, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, vehicle spare parts, equipment, and in prices of services, amongst others. The cost and price of virtually everything are much higher today, and it is because of inflation.

Inflation is not only a serious problem but also it has a disturbing effect on the economic life, political system, and society as a whole, it has a corrosive impact on all savings and investments. Significantly, every price rise is affecting the cost of living and many citizens are likely to be further pushed below the poverty line due to this price increase.

So far this year, we have seen a situation where the value of money continues to depreciate in terms of value, and the general price level of goods and services continues to spike. The uncertainty in the country is rather high and this has continued to discourage investments and impede projections and business plans because with persistent inflation, businesses and households perform poorly, and expectedly more money is paid for the same goods and services thereby eroding a large chunk of disposable income of the populace. Infact, one of the obvious issues facing the Nigerian economy today is inflation which is persistently a complex issue that government needs to tackle headlong.

It is important to note that one million naira (N1,000,000) today will not acquire the same value of investment, goods, and services in 10 years mainly due to this price increase. The fact is that it is bad for people to hold huge cash – or keep funds in current or savings accounts, which usually do not offer much of a return at this time. Without a doubt, a continuous increase in the rate of inflation erodes the value of money, slows down financial market development, infrastructure development, economic development. It also increases poverty, lowers purchasing power, increases unemployment, weakens currency, increases business risk, which are evident in the country already. It is well documented in the literature and practice that inflation if left unchecked or unattended can even lead to more inflation – hyperinflation.

However, investment is one of the important channels to curb the excessive impact of inflation in any economy. Therefore, regardless of current realities, investment is key to hedge against the sharp inflation impact we are currently experiencing. For individuals, investing for inflation means choosing assets that keep pace with rising prices. Therefore, it is imperative to consider investment at this time, it is more profitable to invest in other currencies, diversify investment portfolio internationally to include shares of big tech and companies with high dividend payments. More importantly, inflation-protected investments such as real estate (property and land) with potential for higher growth can be considered. This is not the time for substantial investments in domestic equities and/or money market instruments, unless the anticipated return is higher than the inflation rate which is hovering around 18.17% as at March 2021 relying on data from Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBC).

In addition, Gold investing or Gold Shares Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), or professionally managed mutual funds with returns above the prevailing inflation rate can also be considered, all to mitigate the impact of inflation at this time.

The government on the other hand needs to provide a low inflationary environment, this can be achieved by improving on the ease of doing business and handling of the perennial challenges from insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, the severe and irregular regulatory requirements, to a high sense of entitlement, high cost of running business, corruption and the current macroeconomic uncertainty among others in the country. Currently, as a nation, Nigeria is losing its natural advantages to neighbouring countries because of these challenges and this development is disturbing. Sending very little hope of economic development and growth of foreign private investment which is made up of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Foreign Direct Investment is often preferred as a means of boosting the economy as it plays a positive role in the improvement of economic activities. There’s an obvious linkage between FDI and economic growth, consequently the government should make conscious efforts to provide a more enabling business environment and also issue incentives and policies to attract foreign private investment. There are benefits foreign private investment can offer Nigeria, which includes the transfer of innovative technology, higher productivity, capital injection, more revenue for government through taxes, enhancement of balance of payments ability, employment generation, diversification of the industrial base and expansion, and even the modernization of some existing infrastructure.

There is also a compelling need to support, and further consider the Small and Medium-sized Entreprises (SMEs) to improve manufacturing, production, and services to exportable level in the country. By so doing, it will reduce the pressure on import-dependency and improve the country’s business climate and also play a significant role in export growth in the country. Consequently, steps to attract more investments are key at this time and the Nigerian government can use this as one of the ways of boosting the economy and stem inflation. It is recommended that overreliance on imports should be reduced over the long term through aggressive export promotion and key SME development drives which, when considered, will improve the competitiveness of domestically produced goods.

 

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Dr. Olubiyi is an Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management expert with a Ph.D. in Business Administration. He is a prolific investment coach, business engineer, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and a financial literacy specialist. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: drtimiolubiyi@gmail.com, for any questions, reactions, and comments.

By Sola Oni

 

There is no argument that Covid-19 pandemic has altered ways of doing things at domestic and official level. Companies globally, have been exposed to higher risks and investors are more likely to hedge risk than in a normal period. This probably explains why investment in commodities trading  becomes more expedient. Data from the portal of World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) on the growing clamour for commodities trading is revealing. The data indicates that in 2020, 9.3 billion commodity derivatives exchanged hands, an increase of 35.3 percent over the corresponding year. Of the volume, futures trading alone accounted for 96 percent while the remaining 4 percent was options. The underlying commodities cut across Agriculture, Energy, including emissions , ethanol and methanol, precious and non-precious metal, and  index commodity  derivatives.Let me quicky state that it is not the physical commodities that are traded on the commodities exchanges but electronic receipt of the underlying assets. Direct trading of the physical products through warehouses is simply a spot market which exists everywhere.

The data through WEF’s portal further  revealed  by underlying assets, agriculture and energy contracts accounted for the largest share in 2020, accounting for 36 and 31 respectively while precious metals,  non-precious metals and other commodities accounted for 8 percent, 9 percent, and 17 percent, respectively. The scenario has brought into fore the essence of leveraging agricultural derivatives to createemployment, enhance food production and grow a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on sustainable basis. The time is ripe for Nigeria to build conversation around the economics of commodities exchanges, the organized market where electronic receipts are traded under rules and regulations.

Nigeria started as a purely agrarian economy but lost focus when Petro Naira took the centre stage. Today, external shocks characterize the international oil market and Nigeriacan no longer depend on income from crude oil to finance its  economy. Ironically, the country is sitting on the goldmine of agricultural products but  exploiting the opportunities in this space remains a hurdle to cross. Agriculture remains a springboard on which accelerated economic transformation can be erected. Successive administrations in Nigeria since 1960 have initiated various agricultural policies and established many institutions to boost income through agricultural sector.  For instance, the country had witnessed Operation Feed the Nation (OFN), Green Revolution Programme (GR), Agricultural Development Programmes(ADP), National Agricultural Land Development Authority(NALDA), River Basing Development Authority (RBDA) and Directorate of Food and Road and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI). These  lofty initiatives had progressively suffered from issues such as top-down approach to design and implementation, policy inconsistencies and bureaucratic bottlenecks.

The Administration of President Muhammadu , like his predecessors in the state house, has in its portfolio many initiatives aimed at transforming the agricultural sector. There is Livelihood  Improvement Family  Enterprises (LIFE), Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), Agricultural Equipment Hiring Enterprise (AEHE), Presidential Fertilizer Initiative (PFI) etc. Bank of Agriculture (BOA) and Bank of industry (BoI)  have been strengthened for optimal performance. Despite the huge cost of the initiatives, food inflation is hovering at 18.17 percent as of March, the highest in four years. The high cost of food is attributed to farmers’ storage problem due to lack of warehouse, poor road network and conflicts between farmers and herders. The way to go to for Nigeria at this critical moment is commodities exchange.

In Agricultural Journal, O RENJUS puts into perspective the justification for establishment of a commodities exchange : “ …Commodities exchanges are regarded as an integral part of the market environment. It is because they contribute to the formation of objective market prices and increase the liquidity of the market and reduce risks connected with off-exchange transactions.”

Globally, transactions worth trillion Dollars are traded daily on commodities exchanges. Those who have myopic knowledge of the market wrongly assume that Nigeria is not ripe for commodities exchanges . The exchanges are the nerve centre of activities for the following institutions and individuals in the  value chain: Dealing member houses, Depository for clearing and settlement, warehouses,  logistics companies,  issuing houses, insurance companies, trustees, rating agencies, credit bureau, traders, certification agents, aggregators, collateral managers, and solicitors. Commodities exchange is a novel business enterprise in Nigeria and   the role of SEC as the apex regulatory body of commodities exchanges seems misunderstood. But the Investment and securities Act (ISA) and Companies and Allied Matter Act among others have sufficient sections on the role of SEC in the administration of commodities exchanges. The Commission has already registered five commodities exchanges. It is obliged to ensure that the exchanges keep to the rules of the game. A proper has strong commodities exchange has strong  potential to transform the economy. This is where the Commission should be encouraged by the government through creation of enabling environment for these exchanges to thrive.

 

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Oni, Communications Consultant, Chartered Stockbroker and Commodities Trader is the Chief Executive Officer, SofunixInvestment and Communications.

By Ikem Okuhu

 

Discussing Nigeria’s glory using the past tense, like some wannabe all-conquering soldier long dead, can be excruciatingly frustrating. Although our poor exploits (or lack thereof) were always well hidden in the huge dollars from crude oil sales that the nation’s leaders have mostly squandered, the country’s military might have never been questioned. In fact, the world respected Nigeria for its dexterous military and once rated our soldiers as one of the best in Africa. In fact, as recently as 2020, the once famed ‘Giant of Africa’ still ranked 4th on the log of Africa’s best military.

Such high ranking in 2020 may have been a consequence of reputational inheritances, acquired from the days we had a military that was worth the name. From 1989 and halfway through the 90s, Nigeria was a subregional liberator and led a coalition, then known as the Ecowas Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) to rid Liberia and Sierra Leone of its multiple rebel groups. These two countries would still not have become stable democracies if not for the intervention of the Big Brother of West Africa. We all still remember the medals of honour Nigerian policemen and soldiers earned for themselves and the country during various United Nations peacekeeping missions. We cannot also forget how former President Olusegun Obasanjo flew to Cape Verde to routinely ask the band of soldiers that had seized power in what was to be the country’s first coup d’état, to walk back to the barracks, paving the way for the ousted civilian regime to return to office.

I do not know whether the country could still muster the might (of mind as of military) to muscle its way over any country today. How can we when we are almost overrun by different renegade forces, each pulling furiously and ferociously from different vulnerable corners of the country’s poorly protected underbelly? It took Nigeria just 14 years, between 1989 and 2003 to quell the civil war in Liberia. It took even fewer number of years, 11 to be precise, to put those tearing Sierra Leone apart to flight. Such was the dedication and precision of the Nigerian military.

The story is however different back home where the battle to decimate Boko Haram has lasted more than 19 years with no end of the religious conflict in sight. The people of Liberia and Sierra Leone, and indeed the rest of the world, would have been wondering whether it was still the same Nigerian Army whose soldiers arrived in their countries and smoked out Sergeant Doe, Charles Taylor, Yommie Johnson, Andre Baptiste, Foday Sankoh and sundry other fortune hunters destabilizing those countries.

The lingering, and, if you like, increasingly escalating war against Boko Haram in the north east of Nigeria has very recently been blamed on what the military like describing as the “asymmetrical” tactics of the terrorists. But anyone who followed the wars in both Liberia and Sierra Leone would have been familiar with how efficient the country’s military was in dispatching the different rebel groups who mostly used the asymmetrical strategy to fend off the ECOWAS coalition forces. Why then would an army that had defeated foreign rebels that fought with the asymmetrical strategy be struggling to contain a local rebel group purportedly using same war tactic?

The answer I found in the prevailing culture of condoning ineptitude currently pervading the country.

 

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Okuhu, a former Special Assistant to Governor Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, is a journalist, author, farm entrepreneur, whose most recent book is ‘Pitch: Debunking Marketing’s Strongest Myths’

By Ekelem Airhihen

 

Africa needs some smart solution in the face of changes around the globe. The threat to globalization as seen in trade restrictions with tariffs and disruptions of supply chains, the fears over inflation post pandemic and the dangers of poverty and “illegal” migration call for Africa to think through strategies for recovery.

Globaldata, a leading data and analytics company, states that low cost airline model will lead post-COVID recovery and help revitalize demand. It states that frugal cost-cutting measures which these airlines would adopt as well as operational responsiveness will put these airlines in a position to move quickly to absorb pent-up demand and capitalize on any opportunities ahead of other high cost model airlines.

UNCTAD in its Economic Development in Africa Report 2019 states that intra-African exports were 16.6 per cent of total exports in 2017, compared with 68.1 per cent in Europe, 59.4 per cent in Asia, 55.0 per cent in America and 7.0 per cent in Oceania. It further defined intra-African trade as the average of intra-African exports and imports. This was about 2 per cent during the period 2015 – 2017, while comparative figures were 47 per cent for America, 61 per cent for Asia, 67 per cent for Europe and 7 per cent for Oceania.

Duty-free is widely understood to mean the shopping experience at an airport prior to an international flight. This concept has evolved over the years. Arrivals duty-free shopping is a recent development. This has been found to be successful around the world wherever it has been implemented according to European Travel Retail Confederation. Here, sales take place to passengers on arrival and before they clear customs control, while goods bought are considered a part of the personal luggage of the passenger.

Duty-free shopping as a part of intra African trade will carry along the benefits to African companies and SMEs seeking to make inroads to fellow African countries. Increased sales will lead to creation of more jobs; will assist in the recovery of the aviation sector and, indeed, other sectors post pandemic giving a boost to efforts at growing GDP across African countries.

McKinsey expects that as the pandemic subsides, the rise in leisure trips will outpace the recovery of business travel. Evidence from 9/11 and global financial crisis seems to suggest that leisure trips or visit to relatives and friends rebound first. Africa has opportunities for tourism and the surge in demand for travel after various lockdowns is an opportunity that the transport and tourism industry will have to work with the various chambers of commerce to ensure all benefit from it.

Leisure passengers are the main purchasers of duty-free shopping. Travellers going on holiday or to visit friends and relatives make up the majority of customers in Duty Free and travel retail, says the European Travel and Retail Confederation.

Introducing Arrivals Duty Free, it suggests further, in airports, will increase the exposure products can achieve with an international audience. It will also create a new market and a new high-profile shop window for locally produced goods.

In achieving intra African trade leveraging on duty free shopping, the issues to think through will be: Competition with local retail outlets, competitiveness of local production, effects on tax practices among African countries, size of the aviation market in member countries, the impact of e-commerce and technology, as well as other government regulations, and the enforcement of rules of origin across African countries in the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.

I was elated at the Zambia–Zimbabwe border shops on a visit to Victoria Falls to see fabric on sale made in Nigeria. With improved air connectivity across African countries, as we are beginning to see with the acquisition of cost effective airplanes by airlines, and government support for the transport and tourism industry, along with collaboration by the private sector, the statistics on intra African trade is likely to head up north in the medium to long term.

 

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Ekelem Airhihen is a chartered accountant and airport customer experience specialist. He can be reached on ekyair@yahoo.com

 

 

By Adekunle Segun

 

Liquefied Natural Gas, popularly known as LNG, is a gaseous form of fuel used for various purposes, including but not limited to, propulsion and electricity generation. LNG is actually cooled down to sub-zero temperatures in order to maintain a liquid form majorly for safety reasons and to achieve an anticipated level of storage for the purpose of local consumption or for transport in dedicated trucks or vessels. After achieving its liquefied state, a typical LNG storage system maintains about 1/600 the actual quantity of natural gas in its non-liquid form.

Natural gas is composed majorly of methane. This is not to say that there are no other gases in natural gas; however, the major presence of methane helps an optimistic overview that a pure gas of pipeline quality can be achieved. The gas found at various well heads is defined as associated gas and as such weds to be properly refined, or separated, to become a market friendly commodity. After refining, the non-associated gas needs to be properly pressurised and stored in order to be attractive commercially. Raw natural gas can be found in various types of wells, and these include majorly condensate wells, gas wells, and crude oil wells. Upon drilling of a well for the purpose of exploration, various tests and production processes are carried out to determine the kind of well to be achieved ultimately. This is not to say that crude oil or other wells are not known ab initio. However, when a relatively new geographical location is to be explored, the outcome of the research well will determine the type of commodity to explore in this area.

Nigeria currently operates six trains of liquefaction, purification and LNG storage facilities. However, there are bigger plans to put in operation train seven and eight. Only recently the Nigerian LNG process for train seven crossed the FID (Final Investment Decision) stage to commence actual construction and ultimate operation. However, the setbacks and dangers posed by covid-19 amongst other factors have hampered the train seven process. This will very soon be a thing of the past as more vaccines are rolled out to the Nigerian public.

Nigeria stands at number nine when discussing LNG proven deposits capacity. Her proven gas reserves total about 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf) with the prospects of more deposits and expansion in the nearest future. It is proposed that NLNG (Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas) will add another 600 tcf of natural gas if trains seven and eight were to come on stream. Associated advantages to this is the creation of over 750,000 jobs and an addition of more LNG and LPG vessels to the current 23 LNG carriers. There is also proven potentials to bring onboard more reserves and create additional employment in the LNG value chain process. It will be pertinent to note here that Nigeria’s gas production is a public-private partnership between some oil majors namely, Total Eni, Royal Dutch Shell and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

Nigeria’s trade partners in LNG business include Portugal in Europe and certain major importers in Asia. However, just like a typical commodities market, the laws of demand and supply play a very important role in determining the prices of this all important commodity. Nonetheless, the good news is that Nigeria has one of the lowest costs of production in the league of LNG market producers. The cost of production is significantly minimal that they still churn out profits at various LNG prices. One other factor is that supply contracts are usually extended to more than six months and in some cases they run into years. The various buyers also exercise certain clauses in their contracts to vary their intake capacity or supply lines. The good news about this is that head or tail, if there is a glut of supplies in the LNG market, we can easily dispose our overage in the spot market where other buyers can take off the products on a one off transaction, though this is not as profitable as a regular contract. While this is done at a discount, it does not have any major adverse effect on the anticipated profitability.

Finally, it is projected that world’s LNG consumption will continue to increase in the future, with the coming on stream of various liquefaction plants in major LNG markets in Africa, Europe and Asia. Countries will continue to demand for more sub-zero energy. Countries will also continue to erect more regasification plants to accommodate products from the liquefaction plants. However, to fully utilize and be a force in this all important market, Nigeria needs to continue to improve her liquefaction capacity and target markets with huge regasification capacity. As countries’ ability to earn in this markets will be determined by their liquefaction and proven reserves capacity. I hope to make more lucid various significance of liquefaction and regasification, in subsequent articles.

 

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•  Adekunle Segun is a maritime professional…He writes from Lagos; Nigeria…

By Caesar Keluro

 

Digitalization is crucial to the survival and the future of African MSMEs and our economy. It provides these benefits for MSMEs: improved profit margins, productivity, and customer loyalty and retention, along with cost reductions; it has the ability to offer new products and services, and global market access. Experts have confirmed that small businesses are being transformed by a basic level of digital engagement while those with an advanced level of digital engagement are delivering double digits growth.

Sadly, African MSMEs are held behind by these barriers to digitisation: cost, access, and lack of acquaintance. There is need for urgent policy effort to digitize our MSMEs through collaboration with industry players so we can deliver an effective digital ecosystem. One of the major initiatives by the Malaysian government under the PENJANA programme includes increasing the annual allowance to 40 per cent for capital expenditure spent on ICT equipment. This attractive tax incentive is encouraging MSMEs to invest in ICT equipment as part of their digitalization journey to thrive in today’s demanding business environment.

A borderless marketplace

We are in a borderless marketplace. MSMEs need equip themselves with relevant digital solutions and digital technologies to maximize their operational efficiency, expense and take advantage of regional and global opportunities. In the fast evolving and dynamic business landscape of today, we can use digital technology to integrate smallholders in a digitally driven agri-food system. This will enable smallholders to access reliable information, overcoming remoteness and exclusion cost-effectively.

Aided by digital technologies like smartphones, satellite imagery, geographic information systems, and artificial intelligence, these can help farmers identify pests and diseases, support irrigation scheduling and planning, and assist weather forecasts and alerts. Also, social media is helping farmers crowdsource market-related information.

Asian governments are leading the world with diverse digital interventions. These digital interventions are reshaping competition locally and globally with consequences for African MSMEs. Some of the immediate benefits of their digital interventions targeting MSMEs are: managing transactions at a distance; delivering goods efficiently; facilitating access to financial services; and also assisting with engaging with new and existing customers.

Yet, we know that the process of adopting new digital approaches to selling does not come without risks. With digitalization, we are faced with the following: cybersecurity and data privacy concerns; exposure to digital fraud; online misinformation; asymmetric market power and platform dominance; and finally, African digital divide and infrastructure-related issues. Addressing these challenges will demand policy makers to help MSMEs’ navigate the digitalization route with ecosystem partners. This can be helped by government agencies working together with digital platforms like Jumia and others to provide education and training for MSMEs, helping them to go digital and expand market reach not only in response to the COVID-19 crisis, but explore our evolving global digital future.

African policy makers must work with ecosystem players to help globalize African MSMEs through ICT and e-commerce integration and interoperability of ecommerce platforms; with this enabling the promotion of the internationalization of our MSMEs and embedding them into global value chains. Although the need to attract foreign exchange earnings is critical, findings reveal that “digital tools could lower export costs of an average MSME” with lots of time saving benefits.

Recalled that DHgate (online marketplace for Chinese goods) linked over 1.9 million MSMEs in China with 19 million enterprise buyers across 222 economies and regions around the world, this should be the fulcrum of designing our Africa digitalization strategies and continental-wide digital engagements. Building on that, with customer retention programmes to maintain strong links between foreign buyers and local sellers will transform Africa’s export strategies.

Key area of transformation is in the logistics space. The digitalization of business logistics could help African businesses maintain on-time product delivery and deliver cost-savings even as we must address our ICT, educational and power infrastructure challenges. It will be amazing to see the evolution of our digital commerce space into “super app” business model, featuring food delivery, payment processing, and shopping services like we have seen in the Asian world.

Regarding financials, with cross platform partners, we can transform our supply chain finance platforms, integrating MSMEs to share details of transactions and verify invoices instantly. We believe this process could allow MSMEs to sell validated invoices to banks, access payment immediately, and avoid the hassle of handling payment collection. The rise of dominate digital platforms and the hovering anti-trust hammer on them, means Africa regulators have to develop the technical competence to navigate digital ecosystem regulatory conundrum. We must be wary of platform dominance morphing into market power in certain sectors of the economy.

In all, keeping an eye on pricing and algorithms will be critical to the health of our digital commerce market. We should watch out for digital platforms pressuring on African startups by copying their features or copying any of their competitive edge. We should find ways to restrict the influence of large platforms affecting MSMEs through pricing (e.g., charging relatively steep service commissions) that cut into profits and drive some MSMEs out of the market. We should x-ray the influence of algorithms and its power to put some MSMEs at a disadvantage, this concern should be addressed by periodic assessment of algorithms and promotion of the need for digital platforms to include explanatory tools about their algorithms.

 

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Caesar Keluro is co-founder/CEO, Nanocentric Technologies Limited. He leads ‘Make In West Africa’, a regional Think-tank. He tweets https://twitter.com/KCaesar, https://www.linkedin.com/in/caesarkeluro/

By Caesar Keluro

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) could significantly widen the gap between developed and African countries. The countries at the forefront of AI research are Japan, South Korea and the United States (together accounting for almost two-thirds of AI-related patent applications). There is also China which has recorded a remarkable increase in the number of AI patents with EU member states contributing 12 per cent of the total AI-related inventions over 2010-2015. Where is Africa in the global AI scheme of things?

Africa faces an enormous skill gap in AI alongside lack of huge standardized pool of data, which is an essential prerequisite for a thriving AI ecosystem. This is worsened by the level of AI uptake by companies on the continent not to even mention a near absence of AI-related investment and scanty patent numbers. Yet, African businesses should ensure its growing value-added manufacturing and industrial base by taking advantage of AI. With AI, it is inevitable that the fierce global competition we are seeing would seep into African businesses with the likelihood to shrink our businesses’ returns as the bulk of the returns move overseas as a result of IPs, competitive talent and technology uptake.

Interestingly, AI is the most strategic technologies of the 21st century. It can boost labour productivity (by up to 40 per cent) due to ground-breaking technologies, supporting more efficient workforce-related time management. With the rise of Lekki Free Zone in Lagos as an industrial base, businesses there should take cognizance of AI’s ability to create a new virtual workforce. Experts have described it as ‘intelligent automation’ – with the capability of solving problems and self-learning. In Africa’s pursuit of economic renaissance, we must incorporate AI in every facet of our economies so we can benefit from the diffusion of innovation that is capable of affecting different sectors and creating new revenue streams for us.

Sadly, we cannot accomplish much without the human talent that drives AI’s discoveries, corporate and economic applications. We will need African governments to pass legislations that would provide scholarships, including tuition and stipends, to undergrad and graduate students who are studying AI and related fields. As advancements in artificial intelligence continue, Africa faces a significant threat in a fragmented global system worsened by China and US rivalry. We cannot sit back and watch the others promote ethical applications based on their values only.

Africa can provide a third and dispassionate perspective by not just prioritising investments in this revolutionary technology but by reconstructing its fragile industry base by sponsoring AI talent, helping us to shape the world through our journey and influencing ethical applications of AI. Supported by legislation, we can have African students studying artificial intelligence at either the undergraduate or graduate level  have some of their educational cost taken care of through agreement to work with African public agencies after graduation. African private sector players can pave the way for coordinated framework to advance our efforts in the AI through a private sector-driven AI research entity. The contrary would be redundancy which could have far-reaching consequences for African labour market and its economic stability.

New competitive framework

Diaspora Africans who are studying in AI and AI-related fields should be incentivize to take advantage of this AI scholarship as it will help Africa build and grow its competitiveness in the long term, helping us build economic security and most critically helping to ensure this technology is used ethically for the benefit of mankind. Beneficiaries of these scholarships must be provided access to internships and jobs continentally and in countries with opportunities provided to enable them reshape our public service and private sector. By motivating more talent to pursue training in AI, we can help Africa develop competences in these emerging technologies.

The McKinsey Global Institute expects that around 70 per cent of companies would adopt at least one type of AI technology by 2030, while less than half of large companies would deploy the full range. McKinsey estimates that AI may deliver an additional economic output of around $13 trillion by 2030, increasing global GDP by about 1.2 per cent annually. It said that this will mainly come from substitution of labour by automation and increased innovation in products and services, a challenge and opportunity for African policy makers to munch over.

In all, with Africa’s rapid growing population and massive youthful demographics, we need to adopt AI and other breakthrough technologies to boost economic growth for our people. Despite the world’s worries and warnings about AI-induced economic disruption through robots and automation, the fact is new technologies will help fuel global growth as productivity and consumption will rise. While AI could worsen the global pecking order, we can exploit it by making the right strategic investments today. I will suggest those investments should be focused on equipping our youths with AI skillsets. This window of opportunity is not shut down on us yet.

 

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Written by Caesar Keluro, Co-Founder/CEO, Nanocentric Technologies Limited. He leads ‘Make In West Africa’, a regional Think-tank. He tweets https://twitter.com/KCaesar,  https://www.linkedin.com/in/caesarkeluro/